President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are preparing to debate on Thursday, as they run neck-and-neck in the U.S. presidential campaign ahead of the election in November.
The election outcome is sure to have a huge impact on Asia, as Biden and Trump offer sharply different visions for America’s role in the world, as well as management of trade and the U.S. economy, policy toward climate change and the development of technology.
In a series of articles, Nikkei Asia examines where the two rivals stand on the issues and the probable consequences of a victory by either candidate. In this article, we examine their positions on the Indo-Pacific and the Quad partnership among the U.S., Japan, India and Australia, which would be a central platform for regional cooperation.
What did Trump do during his administration?
Officials who served the Trump White House take pride that it was Trump — working with then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe — who revived the Quad.
The group was established by President George W. Bush’s administration as an ad hoc mechanism to coordinate humanitarian assistance and disaster relief for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.
Abe had identified the four countries as potential partners in the “Indo-Pacific,” a larger notion than the traditional “Asia-Pacific,” and pushed for meetings and naval exercises. But the Quad lost steam as China openly expressed displeasure over its activities.
A decade later, Trump, who often turned to Abe for advice on foreign policy, gained interest in the concept. In November 2017, the Quad was revived after a decade of inactivity, with officials from the four countries gathering on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit in Manila.
What did Biden do during his administration?
The Biden White House took the baton and ran with it. The administration, issuing its Indo-Pacific strategy in February 2022, described the Quad as a “premier regional grouping” and mentioned it 13 times in the document.
The Quad held its first-ever virtual leaders’ summit in March 2021 and an in-person summit in Washington during September that year. Since then, the countries have agreed to host the summits on a rotational basis, in the order of Japan, Australia and India.
But the Quad has been cursed by the calendar. The 2023 Australia summit was canceled because Biden returned to Washington after the Hiroshima Group of Seven summit to avert a budget crisis. The Quad leaders instead held a short gathering in Japan, on the sidelines of the G7 in Hiroshima. The 2024 summit has yet to be held in India, due to elections in both the U.S. and India.
Yet the time looks ripe for deeper Quad collaboration, as the partners seek to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific. In a recent report published by the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, former Indian naval officer Prakash Gopal argued that India is now more willing to contribute to new forms of “collective deterrence, if not defense” in the Indo-Pacific, as its relationship with China deteriorates.
Biden administration officials are keen to highlight the Quad in a potential second term. They are scheduled to host a Quad foreign ministers meeting in Tokyo this summer and a Quad summit in India, after the Nov. 5 U.S. elections are over.
What can we expect from a second Trump administration?
“The Quad is here to stay,” Lisa Curtis, former National Security Council senior director for South and Central Asia under Trump, told Nikkei Asia.
“It will remain an important grouping, a focal point of coordination for the Indo-Pacific,” said Curtis, now director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. “All four countries value the group.”
But a recent article published in Foreign Affairs magazine by Trump’s fourth and final national security adviser, Robert O’Brien, raised questions among India watchers.
The article, “The Return of Peace Through Strength: Making the Case for Trump’s Foreign Policy,” made no mention of India, South Asia or the Quad.
