Joel Atkinson is a professor in the Graduate School of International and Area Studies (GSIAS) at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul, where he researches and teaches East Asian international politics.
Donald Trump’s recent announcement of J.D. Vance as his running mate gives us some clues about what to expect in terms of Northeast Asia policy should he win a second term as U.S. president in November.
To start with the obvious, the Ohio senator is not a Marco Rubio — a more traditional Republican foreign policy hawk: pro-liberal democracy, anti-authoritarian, and more in tune with former U.S. Rep. Mike Gallagher and former Trump official Matt Pottinger.
The University of Chicago’s Paul Poast contrasts that group, which seeks to send the Chinese Communist Party the same way as the Soviets, with another group focused on co-existing with Beijing while deterring it from using force in a way harmful to Washington’s interests. Vance’s views appear to line up quite closely with the latter camp’s most prominent proponent, Elbridge Colby, another former Trump official. Vance recently namechecked Colby at the National Conservatism conference.
Some have labelled Vance (and Colby) neo-isolationists, but that misses the mark. According to his public statements, Vance wants to maintain the existing security order and push back on those seeking to overthrow it. But the power of one challenger, China, forces the U.S. into trade-offs. Due to wrong decisions made in Washington over decades that resulted in the hollowing out of American manufacturing, the U.S. is unable to produce sufficient weapons to supply Ukraine at the rate it has been doing while also supporting Israel and deterring China from annexing Taiwan.
In this world of American industrial scarcity, it is Ukraine that loses out. Vance supports Israel for what he says are religious reasons as a Christian. And, Vance said of Taiwan: “The thing that we need to prevent more than anything is a Chinese invasion. … It would be catastrophic for this country. It would decimate our entire economy. It would throw this country into a Great Depression.”
Vance said he opposes Russian President Vladimir Putin and admires the brave people of Ukraine. But since the Washington’s priority is Taiwan, and since Europe has ample resources, confronting Russia is Europe’s job if it truly sees it as an existential threat.
Prioritizing re-industrialization over cooperation with China has become something of a mainstream, bipartisan position in Washington these days. Vance appears to be more hardline than most, animated not only by China, but also genuine anger on behalf of the working class and at the elites who took the U.S. down this path. And as a climate change skeptic, he is not merely unaffected by, but actively opposed to, climate-related concerns moderating policy toward China in areas such as solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles.
As far as I know, Vance has yet to publicly articulate how cooperation with Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to contain China should moderate trade and industrial policies. However, given his disdain for “Washington consensus” policies and focus on “America first,” it seems a safe bet that his views align with Trump’s. This issue of how Trump will square his China pushback with his characterization of America’s allies taking advantage remains a key worry for the region, and Vance as vice president does nothing to ease that.
All considered, the Vance pick suggests that America’s future will be Trump-ier in terms of Europe, trade and industrial policy, military spending, and competition with China. Trump’s signals on defending Taiwan and plans to reshape Washington’s Asian alliances have been confusing. Vance is loyal and deferential to Trump, and endorses his transactional worldview. He will likely encourage rather than restrain whatever Trump decides to do, with potentially damaging consequences for the region.
Still, Vance’s views on deterring China from attacking Taiwan and getting the defense industrial base in order provides some grounds for optimism that a second Trump administration will support Taiwan and other countries in the region against Chinese pressure and compete effectively with Beijing.
