Taiwan is bracing for prolonged uncertainty and pressure to strengthen its own defense if Republican Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election in November, experts say.
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, who took office in May, has sought to continue his predecessor’s policy of working closely with Washington amid intensifying military incursions and political coercion by China, which considers Taiwan its territory.
But Trump signaled it might not be business as usual when he told Bloomberg Businessweek, in an interview published this week, that “Taiwan should pay us for defense.”
Trump’s criticisms of traditional alliances and penchant for deal-making suggest the property tycoon-turned-politician could adopt a more transactional approach toward partners including Taiwan than incumbent President Joe Biden, whose hopes for re-election appear to be fading.
“Fundamentally, for Trump, China is the key challenge and threat. He wants to stop China but he’s also a dealmaker and will give and take. Taiwan, for him, is part of his plan in dealing with China,” said Lin Chong-pin, adjunct professor at the Graduate Institute of Strategic Studies at Taiwan’s National Defense University. “Taiwan itself is not the top priority.”
Working with Biden is “a lot more straightforward,” said the professor, formerly Taiwan’s deputy defense minister and national security council adviser. “A Trump victory will bring a lot of uncertainty for Taiwan. But Taiwan’s government will have to work with his administration — we don’t have alternatives.”
The U.S. is Taiwan’s most important security partner via arms sales and political backing. Despite a lack of official diplomatic relations or a formal defense pact, the U.S. is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself. But another four years of Trump in the Oval Office could increase the urgency for the Lai administration to speed up military reforms and increase its own defense budget — a task potentially complicated by domestic politics.
