The world faces “a new era of crisis” with potential implications for the Indo-Pacific, Japan’s Defense Ministry warned in its annual white paper that echoes previous reports while amplifying the need for deterrence.
The July 2024 report assesses Japan’s security environment from April 2023 to March 2024. It identifies North Korea, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia as threats and warns of a regional Ukraine-like scenario if those regimes increase their aggressive behavior in defiance of internationally accepted standards.
The world “is now facing its greatest trial since the end of World War II,” Defense Minister Minoru Kihara wrote in the report’s preface. “The existing order is being seriously challenged. Japan finds itself in the most severe and complex security environment of the post-war era.”
The “Defense of Japan 2024” white paper aligns with Tokyo’s rapidly developing defense posture. Japan in December 2022 declared it would develop counterstrike missile and other capabilities, prioritize innovation, and double defense spending to 2% of gross domestic product by 2027. Response capabilities are more critical than ever as the PRC strengthens its military and North Korea continues its illegal nuclear and missile programs, the white paper asserts. The two nations’ growing relationships with Russia also are a concern.
“The first part of the year’s defense white paper, which describes the security situation surrounding Japan, is the most tense in the paper’s [50-issue] history, given Russia’s protracted invasion of Ukraine, China’s increasing military pressure on Taiwan, and North Korea’s deployment of tactical nuclear weapons,” Yoshinaga Kenji, a former intelligence officer in Japan’s Public Security Intelligence Agency and Maritime Self-Defense Force, told The Diplomat magazine in July.
The white paper identifies the PRC as Japan’s “greatest strategic challenge.” It notes increased Chinese presence in the East China Sea — particularly around the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands — the Sea of Japan and the western Pacific Ocean. The People’s Liberation Army, meanwhile, has intensified its military exercises around self-governed Taiwan, and Beijing has expanded its presence in the South China Sea by building military bases on artificial islands and making territorial claims that defy international maritime laws. The PRC increasingly has collaborated with Russia, including on military activities such as joint bomber flights and naval maneuvers near Japan, the report states.
“Unilateral changes to the status quo by force and such attempts represent a serious challenge to the existing international order,” the white paper states. “It cannot be ruled out that a serious situation similar to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine may occur in the Indo-Pacific region in the future, particularly in East Asia.”
Illicit cyber activities are becoming more serious, and other security concerns such as information warfare and climate change are emerging, the report states. Malign actors impose illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive moves in lieu of military actions.
The white paper notes increased collaboration among Allies and Partners, including Japan’s principal ally, the United States, as well as Tokyo’s enhanced relations with Seoul. Leaders of Japan, South Korea and the U.S. met in August 2023 to discuss a trilateral security approach. Among other measures, the nations now share missile warning data on North Korea.
The assessed period ended before Japanese and Philippine leaders signed a Reciprocal Access Agreement in July. The pact allows the nations to deploy troops to each other’s territory for training and joint operations, including disaster relief.
Amid the greatest challenges since World War II, Kihara wrote, Japan’s Defense Ministry and Self-Defense Forces “are committed to protecting the lives and peaceful livelihoods of Japanese people and defending Japan’s territorial land, waters and airspace to the end.”
