Beijing is expected to seek to deepen security ties and restore trust with Fiji when Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka visits China this week.
The 10-day visit comes just months after a review of a controversial policing agreement signed in 2011 that allowed Chinese police officers to be stationed in Fiji.
At the time of the review, Rabuka – who ousted long-time leader Frank Bainimarama in the 2022 election – said he saw “no need” for the deal.
He said: “If our systems and our values differ, what cooperation can we get from them? We need to look at that again before we decide whether we go back to it, or if we continue the way that we have in the past by cooperating with those who have similar democratic values and systems.”
Fiji eventually upheld the agreement – which also saw Fijian officers being trained in China while Beijing provided equipment such as surveillance gear and drones – but Chinese police will no longer be deployed inside Fiji.
Foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said China hoped the visit, which ends on August 21, would bring the partnership with Fiji to “a new level” and “build an ever closer community”.
Corey Bell, a researcher at the University of Technology Sydney’s Australia-China Relations Institute, said strengthening security cooperation would be high on Beijing’s wish list.
He noted that Chinese President Xi Jinping had told Rabuka at the Apec summit last year that Beijing was willing to help Fiji protect its “security and sovereignty”, a comment that may have reflected “some contrition”.
“Beijing belatedly [realised] they were a bit insensitive and heavy handed in prosecuting their policing agreements in Fiji,” Bell said, adding that Fiji represented China’s “biggest failure” in the Pacific.
And by hosting Rabuka, “Beijing will be hoping to restore some of that trust by reaching out to claw back some of that closeness of cooperation”.
He said Fiji was also important to Beijing because of its Melanesian leadership role and strategic location at the crossroads of the Pacific.
China is also searching for a more reliable regional maritime hub and Bell said port development may also be on the agenda.
“Most importantly, Xi would probably convey his desire that Fiji comes to be a bit more sensitive to Beijing’s positions on foreign affairs issues such as its ‘core interests’, with the hope that other Pacific island countries might follow Fiji’s lead,” Bell said.
These interests include Taiwan and China’s sovereignty claims in the South and East China Seas, as well as issues involving Xinjiang and Tibet.
“Doing so may come across to Rabuka as a low-cost concession for whatever he may receive on the infrastructure or development front, although Rabuka will be cautious not to raise too many concerns in Canberra and Washington,” he said.
“A real coup for Xi will be to have Fiji also speak out, at least in a vague way, against what Beijing has called ‘block confrontation’ or partnerships aimed at countering China, such as Aukus, military cooperation between Japan, the Philippines and the US, and so forth.”
As for Rabuka – who is on his first trip to China since taking office – Bell said he would “gently press” for help on poverty alleviation and hi-tech infrastructure.
Ahead of his trip, Rabuka praised China’s development record and said he planned to travel to a number of provinces to see how the world’s second-largest economy has pulled millions out of poverty.
Bell said the length of the trip suggested Rabuka is “optimistic” it will be “smooth”, adding that relations appear to have recovered from the “trough” when he started reviewing the policing deal.
He said Rabuka has sought to strengthen Fiji’s regional leadership credentials and will want to show he has a “constructive relationship with Beijing that delivers for his nation and the region” but also “that he can walk the tightrope” between China, the US and Australia.
Anna Powles, an associate professor in security studies at Massey University in New Zealand, said relations have been “challenging” since Rabuka took office.
During the election campaign he promised to pivot away from China’s influence and last year triggered a diplomatic spat when he skipped a meeting with a senior Chinese official.
But Powles said she expected agreements covering areas such as climate and health to be signed during the visit, adding: “It’s definitely an indication that relations are improving.”
Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University, said China would likely seek to boost cooperation with Fiji in non-traditional security areas such as climate change and infrastructure.
He said that when it came to security, Australia, New Zealand and the United States have “great influence in the South Pacific region … but now [Fiji] is hoping to diversify”.
Bell said Rabuka’s trip also came amid renewed Chinese diplomatic efforts in the region, which saw Xi meeting leaders from Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands last month and pledging to help their development.
Bell suggested that there has been “a bit of a hiatus” for China’s diplomacy in the region, in part due to the “failures” of its previous aid and development model.
“[It] intensified a need for Beijing to step back and look at its aid diplomacy model as well as things like the [Belt and Road Initiative] which were proving both wasteful and unsustainable economically, and unsatisfactory in terms of their outcomes,” he said.
“Its probable, but still speculative, that Beijing has a new working plan in place, and is now working on applying that.”
