Beijing could crush Taiwan by knocking out the island’s key infrastructure nodes – amplifying its vulnerability exponentially like a “butterfly effect”, according to an article in the May issue of Chinese military magazine Naval and Merchant Ships.
The article detailed 30 to 40 “super critical” targets that could lead to a chain collapse of fundamental infrastructure systems if attacked with “best timing”, including liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities that were the focus of a recent People’s Liberation Army drill.
“A system collapse would quickly destroy the Taiwanese independence forces’ will to resist and create favourable conditions for a ‘win without fighting’,” it said. “It could provide a low-cost, high-efficiency military option for resolving the Taiwan issue.”
The article estimated that electricity and water supplies could be cut for days, bringing traffic to a standstill, disrupting communications and internet access, delaying medical services and causing food shortages.
The tactic of “urban collapse warfare” could achieve the maximum effect with the minimum military cost – the ideal state of “defeating the enemy without fighting”, the article said, quoting Sun Tzu’s The Art of War.
Taiwan, an island highly dependent on imported energy and commodities, and regularly threatened by natural disasters such as earthquakes and typhoons, is a perfect target for this kind of tactic, the article pointed out.
“Taiwan’s power grid, water supply, transport, communications, medical and other infrastructure together form a complex and highly interconnected network … And it is precisely this highly developed and closely interconnected nature that makes its infrastructure significantly vulnerable,” it said.
It is unknown if the article represents official thinking in Beijing, but similar tactics were observed in April, when a massive PLA drill near Taiwan included a strike on a mock LNG depot, comparable to the island’s largest such facility.
Beijing regards the island as part of its territory, to be unified by force if necessary. As tensions across the Taiwan Strait have grown, the PLA has stepped up its military posture there and discussions about a “forced reunification” have increased.
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