As former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris go toe to toe, North Korea is among many countries paying keen attention to the 2024 U.S. presidential election — but from an unusual standpoint.
At a military ceremony on Aug. 4, North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, sounded in two minds about his belligerent hermit nation’s relationship with the U.S. He said his country, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, should be more thoroughly prepared to square off with the U.S. if need be. But he also said Pyongyang has the choice of engaging in dialogue with Washington.
A commentary on the DPRK-U.S. relationship, distributed on July 23 by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), referred intriguingly to Kim’s mixed feelings about Trump. While denouncing the U.S. as an “endemic-infected fanatic confrontationist,” the commentary conceded that there remains a “personal friendship” between Kim and Trump.
“The foreign policy of a nation and personal feelings must be strictly distinguished,” the KCNA reminded itself.
The KCNA’s unusually equivocal commentary is remarkable for the reasonable presumption that it reflects Kim’s personal thinking. It reveals Kim’s nostalgia for Trump despite hurt feelings when the second U.S.-DPRK summit in February 2019 was abruptly curtailed — Kim’s apparent “humiliation in Hanoi.” The pair were nevertheless reported to have exchanged as many as 27 letters over the course of their three meetings. But Kim must temper any optimism as he cannot afford a repeat of the Hanoi fiasco.
Is a renewed bromance in the stars? North Korea’s Kim Jong Un first met U.S. President Donald Trump at a bilateral summit in Singapore in 2018. © Reuters
The KCNA commentary concluded somewhat wistfully that “whether the second hand of the DPRK-U.S. confrontation stops or not entirely depends on U.S. behavior.” Implicit in that observation is North Korea’s intransigence in the bilateral relationship. North Korea has two key demands:
First, Pyongyang wants to move the clock back to the joint statement issued after the first summit in Singapore in June 2018, when the DPRK agreed to work toward the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in exchange for the U.S. pledging security guarantees. At a news conference following his meeting with Kim, Trump said he intended to halt joint military drills between the U.S. and South Korea while Washington-Pyongyang dialogues were ongoing.
Second, Pyongyang wants the DPRK-U.S. talks to be positioned as those on arms control, being treated as an established nuclear power. It is six years since the Singapore summit, and North Korea has drastically improved its nuclear and missile capabilities, raising the bar for the resumption of bilateral talks.
The U.S. has long maintained that North Korea’s nuclear development is unlawful and subject to U.N. sanctions. Given rapid advances in North Korea’s nuclear development program, however, there is support in some quarters in the U.S. for the idea that preventing the use and proliferation of nuclear weapons by the DPRK should now be given priority since denuclearization has proved unattainable. North Korea, therefore, seeks the status of a de facto nuclear power outside the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), similar to India, Pakistan and Israel.
North Korea launched a military reconnaissance satellite into orbit on Nov. 21, 2023. © KCNA/Kyodo
The South Korean government, which is strengthening its stance against the North, believes that it is Pyongyang’s “usual practice to make its presence known before any U.S. presidential election,” a source close to the government said. Pyongyang is maneuvering toward DPRK-U.S. talks after the U.S. presidential election by “tricking” Trump, the source warned. The DPRK is likely to resort to military provocations and other hardline tactics while continuing to charm the former president.
Next year, 2025, is the last year in North Korea’s “five-year plan for the development of defense science and weapons systems,” promoted on Kim’s initiative. These include smaller and lighter nuclear weapons, tactical nuclear weapons and “super-sized nuclear warheads.”
Kim’s Aug. 4 address marked the delivery of 250 tactical ballistic missile launchers to frontline military units stationed along the North’s border with South Korea, according to North Korean media.
The development of tactical nuclear weapons continues to be North Korea’s core challenge in the five-year plan. “The focal point remains its seventh nuclear test,” said Shunji Hiraiwa, a professor at Nanzan University in Japan and an expert on the DPRK.
North Korea has not conducted a nuclear test for nearly seven years since its sixth in September 2017, and the seventh will ring regional security alarms.
Depending on the character of the new U.S. administration in January 2025, North Korea may declare “front-loaded” completion of the five-year plan and call for the resumption of negotiations with the U.S., Hiraiwa said.
In another possible scenario, he said, North Korea might urge the U.S. to begin negotiations by announcing readiness for a nuclear test and actually carry one out if Washington turns down the demand. But “the front-loaded completion case is more likely,” he added.
Amid growing global attention on the presidential election, Harris has secured the Democratic nomination. North Korea would prefer Trump, but it should have begun desperate efforts to analyze and assess her for the coming three months until the presidential race. “If Harris is elected president, [North Korea] will likely call for talks on arms control as in the case of Trump,” Hiraiwa said.
If Harris is elected, the U.S. might pursue a new approach toward North Korea that differs from President Joe Biden’s, which has frozen relations. Even if Trump is elected, some observers doubt whether he will hunker down and deal with eternally bothersome North Korea.
“North Korea considers that the more tangled, high-priority issues for the U.S. — such as the Ukrainian situation and the Israel-Iran relationship — become, the more benefits it can get,” Hiraiwa said. “It will make a variety of approaches to the U.S., including behind the scenes.”
