Japan’s defence ministry has submitted its largest-ever budget request, seeking 8.5 trillion yen (US$58.1 billion) in the next financial year to help safeguard the nation from what Tokyo sees as growing threats to the peace and stability of the Indo-Pacific region.
Headline items on the ministry’s wish list include the development of artificial intelligence to assist in national defence; uncrewed weapons systems in the air, on the ground and at sea; and the development of counterstrike capabilities through the purchase of long-range missiles and the building of an additional Aegis-class destroyer to launch them.
Significant funds were also requested for the development of a network of satellites to detect and track the next-generation hypersonic missiles that Japan’s regional rivals – primarily China, but also North Korea and Russia – are understood to be testing and, they claim, deploying.
The most critical element of Japan’s military build-up, however, is in another area, according to security analyst Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi.
“This year’s budget is all part of the larger, five-year plan to increase defence spending through 2027 and the projects they have outlined have been on the horizon for some time,” the associate professor at Tokyo International University’s Institute for International Strategy told This Week in Asia.
“This budget very importantly puts aside funds for the creation of a joint headquarters that will better integrate all three branches of the Self-Defence Forces and bring them effectively under a single, unified command,” Hinata-Yamaguchi said.
“Traditionally, the three branches have not always worked well together, but the money that is now being invested in bringing them together shows its importance. This could make or break the SDF [Self-Defence Forces].”
Financial year 2025, which begins on April 1, will be the third year of Japan’s ambitious military build-up to counter its regional rivals. Under the five-year plan, Japan has committed to spending 43 trillion yen until the end of the 2027 financial year, primarily on enhancing its aviation and maritime capabilities.
Whereas Japan previously placed emphasis on having sufficient ground forces and armoured units to repel an attack on Hokkaido by the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the nation’s needs have changed dramatically in recent years.
Russia is still a rival, but no longer poses a significant conventional threat to Japan. Instead, China has rapidly risen as a regional and world power, enlarging its military and expanding its geographical reach. Beijing has taken control of small islands and atolls in the South China Sea, is disputing its borders with India and Bhutan, claims sovereignty over Japanese-controlled islands in the East China Sea and insists that Taiwan will eventually be incorporated into the rest of mainland China, by force if necessary.
Spending under the new five-year plan is designed to move Japan’s military from a primarily defensive posture to one capable of being proactive in ensuring the country’s security.
Much of the new spending will go into new advanced weapons that can give Japan an offensive strike capability or extending the range of existing missiles designed to counter hostile ships or aircraft, such as the Type 12 surface-to-ship missile.
Also on the wish list are 500 Tomahawks from the United States that would boost Japanese submarines’ ability to strike at enemy bases in the event of an attack.The budget also includes funding to continue research into hi-tech weaponry such as a rail gun, which will utilise electromagnetic force to launch high-velocity projectiles. The round that is fired does not usually contain an explosive charge, instead relying on the projectile’s speed, mass and kinetic energy to inflict damage on the target.
Railguns are seen as a counter to hypersonic weapons, which Japan is also pursuing and aims to deploy in the early part of the next decade.
In the air, Japan is buying 16 additional Lockheed Martin Lightning fighters and anti-submarine helicopters. The budget also calls to step up joint development with Britain and Italy on a next-generation fighter that will have the ability to operate with drone swarms.
The success of unmanned aerial vehicles in Ukraine’s resistance against Russia’s invasion has caught Tokyo’s attention, and it has already deployed a unit of US-built MQ-9 Reaper drones to the Japanese air force’s Kanoya airbase, in southern Japan. Tokyo says the aircraft are being deployed in their reconnaissance and search-and-rescue capacities, although they are capable of carrying payloads of up to 1,700kg.
Work is also progressing on the transformation of the two biggest warships in the Japanese fleet – the helicopter carriers Izumo and Kaga – into full aircraft carriers capable of operating the Lightning.
Two of the Taigei-class of 3,300-ton attack submarines have already been delivered to the Maritime Self-Defence Force, with a further five planned in the class.Plans are also under way for two new Aegis destroyers, more advanced patrol craft, submarines and increased investment in the coastguard, which will serve as an auxiliary navy in the event of a conflict.
Many of the enhancements to Japan’s defence have been driven by recent military experiences elsewhere, such as the emergence of drones in Ukraine as a key element on the modern battlefield, according to Hinata-Yamaguchi.
And while uncrewed military vehicles would help ease Japan’s manpower issues, the relative sizes of its enemies were also a critical issue, he said.
“China is numerically superior to Japan and there is no way that Japan can quantitively counter China, so the only option for Japan is to be qualitatively better,” Hinata-Yamaguchi noted.
Japan was “still on a learning curve” when it came to AI in the military sector, he said, but must catch up to its rivals quickly.
“There is a lot of trial and error going on at the moment in AI, but if we are getting it 90 per cent right that means we’re not getting it right with that last 10 per cent – and that can often be what matters,” he added. “When it comes to defence, we cannot afford to have errors.”
