U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM), Navy Adm. John C. Aquilino, said that China would “soon have the world’s largest air force.”
For some years now, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has had more warships than the US, although only in numbers and not tonnage, where they have a long way to go. He further added, “The magnitude, scope, and scale of this security challenge cannot be understated.”
In its 2023 report on Chinese military power, the Pentagon noted that the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) and PLA Navy (PLAN) combined have over 3,150 operational aircraft other than trainers and uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS).
Interestingly, the U.S. Air Force (USAF) has around 4,000, and the US Navy, Marine Corps, and Army also have several thousand.
China is producing combat platforms at an amazing rate. Currently, it makes around 60 J-20 5th Generation fighters a year, and the figure will soon go up to 100. All these are domestic requirements. Comparatively, the US makes around 135 F-35 a year, of which nearly half are foreign partners.
Many American and Indian analysts feel that the J-20 is roughly a 4.5-generation aircraft because the parameters to consider for the 5th generation are not common between the West and China. Notwithstanding, at the current rate of growth, Chinese air power could overtake the USA in the near future, the Admiral has said.
It is thus time to look at China’s rising air power.
PLAAF Initial Transformation
The PLAAF currently has 400,000 active personnel and nearly 2,700 aircraft. It has come a long way since using the MiG-15s in the Korean War. In the initial decades, it imported or domestically produced Soviet aircraft under license.
Later, when there was a rift between the communist parties of the two giants, China began reverse-engineering the Soviet/Russian aircraft designs. In the 1970s-80s, as part of the USA’s Ping-Pong diplomacy, China did manage access to some American military technologies. But things changed after the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests and massacre.
The US withdrew. Also, with the end of the Cold War in 1991, the USA had little use of China to combat Russia.
In the late 1990s, the PLAAF began making substantial progress in transitioning to more modern airpower with the acquisition and development of advanced aircraft like the Sukhoi Su-27, Su-30 MKK, Su-35, and their reverse-engineered variants, Shenyang J-11, J-15, and J-16.
In 2004, the PLAAF released the force reform concept “Strategic Air Force,” which aimed to reconstruct the PLAAF into an integrated fighting force capable of both offensive and defensive operations in air and space.
Some uncertainties remained, including the inability to develop modern aero engines. However, the PLAAF’s strategic orientation continued to evolve, with a focus on expanding its operational capabilities, including the development of new advanced fighters, long-range bombers, large transports, AEW&C, FRA, a variety of helicopters, and UAS.
Today, the PLAAF is recognized as one of the world’s most capable air forces, reflecting modern training programs and a strategic shift towards developing a formidable aerospace force capable of projecting power regionally and even globally.
Most importantly, the country has gained the capability to counter US intervention in the Taiwan Strait by positioning quality and quantity fighter assets in Eastern and Southern Theatre Commands.
PLAAF intensified its joint operation effort with the PLAN, building up power projection and expeditionary strike capabilities and carrying out joint patrol missions in the East and South China Seas. PLAAF has developed sophisticated integrated air defense systems capable of providing coverage beyond the coastline and borders.
China is the second country in the world and the first in Asia to field an operational stealth aircraft, while the second stealth jet is under advanced development.
Around the same time, the PLAAF introduced PL-10 and PL-15 missiles to improve its air combat capability. Due to improved domestic production, the PLAAF has successfully closed the gap with the West, introducing indigenously developed airframes, composite materials, turbofan engines, advanced avionics, and weapon systems. PLAAF combat pilots fly an average of 100-150 flying hours annually.
PLAAF already has 50 Y-20s and 20 Il-76s in service, with more of the former in construction. They have six Airborne Brigades capable of launching aerial assaults with nearly 11,000 troops. The significant additional number of YY-20s would improve existing air-to-air refueling assets and global reach.
Greater investment and better WS series high-performance jet engines will actually free them from Russian dependence. The next logical step would be to make large transport and airliner engines.
The PL-17 armed fighters can force US FRA to operate at least 1,200 kilometers away from China’s coast, which could result in its fighter escorts not having enough fuel to stay on station.
The Chinese plan to use the KJ-2000 AEW&C and ground-based, over-the-horizon radar data to detect and later target adversary platforms using VLRAAM missiles. It is much more important for China to have long-range missiles to thwart the US from coming closer to its mainland from the Pacific bases.
Chinese AAMs are meant to be “AWACS killers.” Loss of an FRA or AEW&C could have serious implications for all other aircraft in the mission.
Air power remains the most potent means of prosecuting war. It provides long-range precision and flexibility. Modern fighters are omni-role and can thus perform multiple missions in a single sortie.
Aerial refueling has extended the ranges. The AEW&C provides cover deep in enemy territory. For a long time, it has been clear that dominance in the air is necessary for winning ground or sea wars.
Fighter aircraft remain the most potent platform for both offensive and defensive operations. While many are predicting the future to be unmanned, practically all the fifth—and sixth-generation fighters that will see the world through this century are evolving as manned fighters.
The recently released National Defence Strategy suggests that abundant with cash, China’s conventional power is growing more rapidly than that of Russia. Weakened Russia means greater access to its military technology for China.
US Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall said aptly, “We are in a race for military technological superiority with a capable pacing challenge (from China). Our cushion is gone. We are out of time.” But it must be remembered that China’s combat exposure and that of international exercises is very low.
India is one of the most threatened nations in the world. It has two nuclear weapon-possessing neighbors.
For India, both the numbers and capability gap with China are continuing to build. IAF continues to be at a near-all-time low in the number of fighter squadrons. Considering its continental size and threat in IOR, India needs many for AEW&C and FRA.
The militaries are facing eyeball to eyeball. The J-20s are now sitting across the Himalayas at Hotan and Shigatse. India must accelerate the LCA Mk2 and AMCA programs, even if it means pumping more money.
If necessary, buy some interim fighters, including a 5th-generation one. India’s weapon inventories have to go up. Supply chains have to be secured through indigenous production. The two-front threat is real. India must act immediately, lest it become too late, even if it means substantially increasing the defense budget.
