HOPES RAN high that Ukraine might finally be allowed to use British and French Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles against targets inside Russia. Joe Biden and Sir Keir Starmer, Britain’s prime minister, had spoken for two hours at the White House, and many thought the American president would finally grant his permission—needed, it is thought, because the missiles may draw on targeting information from American satellites and other sources in order to evade Russian defences, and some of them may contain American components.
Ukraine took Russia by surprise when its military successfully executed a daring incursion into Kursk Oblast. We were sitting in a café in Kyiv between meetings when the news of the operation began to emerge. At the time, the operation was an internet rumor, and the Ukrainian government was not acknowledging it. Although the Kursk operation has inspired many Ukrainians and their international supporters, the Russian army continues to push forward in the east, and ballistic missiles wreak havoc on Ukrainian population centers. We were in Ukraine to learn from Ukrainians and U.S. officials about the progress of the war and also to hear about the effects of the Russian invasion on the country as a whole.
Since August of 2023, CSIS has led three congressional member and staff delegations to Ukraine, Moldova, and Poland. These trips allow lawmakers the opportunity to see firsthand how U.S. dollars are being put to use in support of Ukraine in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion and how U.S. policy is affecting the war. Although members of Congress do have the ability to travel to Ukraine through the U.S. Department of State, they are unable to spend the night in the country, and their movements are restricted to the Kyiv region. In contrast, our most recent trip in early August allowed for five nights in Ukraine and an overnight in Odesa in addition to time spent in Kyiv. Throughout the course of the stay, we met with U.S. and Ukrainian government officials and personnel from international organizations, business, media, and civil society. Below, we offer a few thoughts on our recent trip.
The Civilian War
Success in war requires civilian support, especially in a democracy. This is doubly true in a grinding war of attrition, where the ability to sustain military operations is often the key to success.
Russia is targeting civilian infrastructure in an attempt to shatter Ukrainian morale and make it difficult for the government to sustain the war effort. Officials expressed concerns about having sufficient power for the coming winter, but the targeting of civilians seemed only to increase the determination of Ukrainians who spoke to us and their anger at Russia. While in Kyiv, we visited Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital where a Russian hypersonic missile strike killed two people and injured dozens of others on July 8. The Russian strike destroyed the nephrology center, which provides dialysis to children, and damaged other parts of the hospital. We also visited other areas damaged by Russian missile and drone attacks, including a large power plant and an apartment building.
As intended, the strikes have inflicted hardship on Ukrainian civilians, but public morale has shown no signs of cracking. Fresh in the minds of many citizens are the horrors experienced under Russian occupation in the early days of the war. Bucha, the epicenter of Russia’s war crimes, is only a 20-minute drive from downtown Kyiv, underscoring how incredibly close Putin’s army came to achieving its ultimate objectives.
In the face of such attacks, life in Kyiv and Odesa shows a curious mixture of war and peace. Though not frontline cities, both suffer regular missile and drone attacks. At the same time, normal commercial and social life continues, albeit with a curfew and other restrictions. It is easy for visitors to overlook the physical and mental trauma that lurks just under the surface of daily interactions.
The reality of the veil of uncertainty under which Ukrainians must live their lives strikes home when an attempt to schedule a meeting weeks in advance is met with an apologetic reply—Ukrainians are no longer used to planning too far in advance anymore, no longer taking the next day, let alone the next month, for granted.
The long-term mental health consequences are likely to be particularly profound. One of our drivers, a quiet man in his sixties, spoke of shuttling an international news crew into recently deoccupied territory in the first months of the war. For him, the hardest thing to see was the bodies of children. He states plainly, “No matter how much you drink, the images will not leave.” First Lady Olena Zelenska is promoting mental health initiatives, and first responders, schools, and other local institutions also grapple with constant risk and fear in their activities. This impact of war will endure for decades after the shooting stops.
Reform amid Uncertainty
Volodymyr Zelensky won Ukraine’s 2019 presidential election as an outsider candidate on a platform that touted democratic reform and anti-corruption. Since then, his presidency has weathered both a global pandemic and the full-scale Russian invasion. Despite being in the midst of an existential war, Ukraine continues to take important strides to combat corruption and consolidate democratic reforms.
Established in 2015, the work of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office has not slowed down since the start of the full-scale invasion. In the early days of the war, some expressed concern that exposing government corruption would jeopardize Western support. On the contrary, the continued commitment to fighting corruption and holding government officials accountable has provided an extra layer of reassurance to donors that assistance will be used as intended.
The prospect of EU ascension has increased technical support to Ukraine from partners. While the focus of donor support has been military assistance, the continuation of economic and technical support to make progress on reform remains essential. Progress on fighting corruption has made great strides, but much remains to be done. Judicial reform remains a large obstacle and must be tackled both to further anti-corruption efforts and to bolster the rule of law.
Demand for Reform is Bottom Up, Not Just Top Down
Since the Revolution of Dignity in 2014, civil society has played a central role in pushing for democratic reforms and rooting out the post-Soviet legacy of pervasive government corruption. However, since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, civil society in Ukraine has been decidedly emboldened. It is now average Ukrainians, not just impassioned activists, that demand reforms.
According to a poll released in June 2023 conducted by the Kyiv International Institute for Sociology, 78 percent of Ukrainians at the time had a close friend or family member who had been killed as a result of the full-scale Russian invasion. This percentage has certainly since increased. With nearly the whole of society feeling the direct impacts of the war, tolerance for government officials “on the take” has evaporated. As of early 2024, Ukrainians are more likely to view “corruption among state authorities” as the biggest threat to Ukraine’s development than Russia’s military aggression.
Implications for the Future of War
Ukraine is a testing ground for military technology and tactics, techniques, and procedures. Innovative uses of drones have captured the attention of many observers, but the conflict also holds lessons for air defenses, electronic warfare, military logistics, the defense industrial base, and many other areas.
Among the most important areas to consider is the rapid pace of innovation amid a long, grinding war. At the same time, however, constant adaptation is necessary. During our trip, Ukrainian officials noted that they were constantly designing new electronic warfare systems and adjusting existing ones—an approach that has proven successful but requires both an adaptive military and a defense industrial base that can quickly shift production. Establishing such a robust and adaptive system in peacetime would be difficult for the United States, but waiting for conflict could mean that precious weeks and months are lost and that U.S. and allied losses would be higher than necessary.
Gratitude and Frustration with the United States
Ukrainian government officials, politicians, civil society leaders, and ordinary citizens the delegation spoke to all expressed sincere thanks for U.S. military, financial, and diplomatic support. Our trip coincided with the arrival of F-16s, and this visible show of support is bolstering morale, even if the aircraft’s military impact proves limited.
This gratitude was tinged with frustration, however. Ukrainians believe they are fighting the good fight—the tip of the spear for democratic resistance to aggressive dictatorships—and are suffering, and dying, on behalf of the broader cause of freedom. U.S. delays in providing aid and uncertainty over future assistance thus have caused anger, even among those who understand the U.S. political system. U.S. limits on the use of many U.S.-provided systems in offensive operations on Russian territory have also led to a sense among Ukrainians that they are fighting with one hand tied behind their back. Ukrainian forces possess the coordinates of airfields just over the border with Russia from which Putin launches MiGs armed with cluster bombs. They possess the weapons to neutralize these airfields, but they lack the permission from partners to do so. The hashtag #letUkrainestrikeback has proliferated over the last several months, demonstrating the widespread belief that Ukraine’s defensive efforts have been significantly hampered by Western countries that are overly sensitive to the potential for Russian escalation.
Conclusion
No foreign community is watching the U.S. elections with as much anticipation as Ukraine. Although European allies have stepped up to provide significant military and economic assistance to Ukraine, much still hinges on the United States. Europeans continue to defer to U.S. leadership, particularly on matters of military assistance and strategy. Without strong sustained U.S. leadership, it is difficult to imagine how Ukraine would sustain the fight against Russian aggression.
