Territorial confrontations in the South China Sea pitting several Asian nations against China have entered a perilous phase that could possibly lead to a war involving the U.S., experts say.
China has claimed virtually all of the South China Sea for decades, but the country’s assertiveness in the region has steadily increased the past several years, resulting in heightened tensions with nations including the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan and Brunei.
Krista Wiegand, a professor at the University of Tennessee, said the U.S. has no direct claims of sovereignty or unique maritime rights in the South China Sea, but the waterway nevertheless is a place where war could break out between the U.S. and China.
Wiegand is the director of the Center for National Security and Foreign Affairs at the Howard J. Baker School of Public Policy and Public Affairs at the university. She is a specialist in territorial and maritime disputes, maritime law, and East Asian security.
“If the U.S. were to get involved in any kind of war with China, it would most likely be over Taiwan,” Wiegand told FreightWaves in an interview. “But at the same time, there is a possibility of an accident or some kind of crisis happening in the South China Sea. For example, if a U.S. vessel has a collision with a Chinese naval vessel or there’s a missile shot at a U.S. destroyer ship or frigate, that would certainly lead to some kind of crisis that might escalate. Nobody wants a war, obviously, including China, but they definitely want the South China Sea, and there’s a possibility that the war might happen.”
About 24% of global maritime trade passed through the South China sea in 2023, according to the United Nations’ 2024 review of maritime transport.
The South China Sea’s share of global seaborne trade volume per commodity in 2023 included crude oil (45%), propane (42%), cars (26%) and dry bulk (23%).
Exports from China to both the U.S. and Mexico have shown strong growth the past five years. The trade route for goods from China to North America passes either through the South China or the East China Sea.
