A surging exodus of top-tier talent fueled by restrictive political and economic policies may pose significant challenges to the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) defense sector, especially in key areas of technological innovation such as artificial intelligence (AI) and cybersecurity. Analysts say the outflow of skilled professionals and increased regulatory constraints on innovation under Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping could impair the CCP’s long-term military capabilities and operational readiness for high-stakes missions, such as a potential invasion of self-governed Taiwan.
The CCP’s deepening authoritarianism is fostering growing discontent among young, educated professionals, with many seeking opportunities abroad to avoid restrictions at home. For example, the party’s zero-COVID policy, which included strict quarantines during the pandemic, and its mandatory political study sessions, along with a shrinking job market, have stoked disillusionment among the PRC’s workforce, according to Dr. Timothy Heath, a senior international defense researcher at the Rand Corp.
According to United Nations data, the number of Chinese nationals who emigrated in 2022 exceeded the number of arriving immigrants by more than 310,000, The New York Times newspaper reported. In the first nine months of 2023, that number had already matched the 2022 total. Many of the recent emigres are young Chinese opting to stay away after studying abroad or tech workers seeking better opportunities, the newspaper reported in late 2023.
For the PRC’s defense industry, traditionally supported by considerable state funding, the loss of talent poses a unique challenge. The shortage of skilled workers undercuts innovation and limits the state’s ability to develop and maintain defense technologies.
“Funding never guarantees outcomes, as China has learned long ago,” Heath said. “Generous state funding is rarely the biggest bottleneck for Chinese scientific innovation. It is more important to set the conditions and recruit the right people for innovation to thrive.”
Beijing’s stringent regulations on high-tech sectors, including AI, aim to bolster security and state control but may slow technological advancements. In July 2023, the PRC introduced measures governing generative AI, such as large language models, purportedly for “safeguarding national security and social public interests.”
The state mandates high performance from tech professionals, yet restricts their operational flexibility — a combination that, according to Heath, “becomes extremely burdensome and difficult to carry out, and many young people may opt for working abroad under more reasonable conditions.”
The PRC’s political climate also drives talent abroad. The state’s National Intelligence Law, which requires citizens and organizations to assist with intelligence efforts, has raised concerns among skilled workers and businesses. Such pressures contribute to an atmosphere of mistrust that has driven professionals to seek alternatives outside China, according to reports.
The PRC’s talent drain threatens its military modernization. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aims to “intelligentize” its forces with AI-enhanced tools, Heath said. However, a shrinking talent pool and the ongoing loss of experts could cause “setbacks and delays,” affecting Beijing’s ability to develop and deploy advanced systems crucial for modern warfare.
“This could hamper the PLA’s ability to build advanced targeting and autonomous unmanned systems that could be useful in a Taiwan contingency,” Heath said.
