China has continued to pile pressure on Taiwan after Chinese forces staged major military drills in the wake of President Lai Ching-te’s inauguration in May.
China claims Taiwan as its territory and considers the Beijing-skeptic Democratic Progressive Party, which under Lai now controls Taiwan’s presidency for an unprecedented third term, as “separatists.”
Beijing is likely to continue testing Lai as it did his predecessor, former President Tsai Ing-wen, though analysts point out that approach is unlikely to sway Taiwanese citizens.
Taiwan’s de facto embassy in the U.S. did not immediately respond to a written request for comment.
Economic Pressure
Last Friday, Beijing announced it would suspend preferential tariffs on 134 types of Taiwanese goods, effective on June 15. The tax reductions were part of a trade deal between Taipei and Beijing.
The Chinese embassy in the U.S. directed Newsweek to the announcement by China’s Customs Tariff Commission.
Beijing is dropping the tariff concessions in response to Taiwan’s “unilaterally adopted discriminatory measures” that violate a 2010 agreement, the commission said.
In a separate statement Friday morning, however, Chen Binhua, spokesperson for the Chinese office tasked with Taiwan affairs, cited the Taiwan administration’s continued rejection of the “1992 Consensus” as a justification for the suspension.
The “1992 Consensus” is a term coined years later for a meeting in which Chinese and Taiwan officials agreed there is only “one China.” Which side of the strait was the real China was left open to interpretation. Neither Lai nor his predecessor Tsai have acknowledged this event as a basis for cross-strait relations.
Taiwan “strongly protested and expressed its dissatisfaction with” the move, which comes after a series of punitive Chinese measures on Taiwanese agricultural products in recent years, such as the ban on Taiwan-grown mangoes that followed the brief stops then-Vice President Lai made in the U.S. in 2023.
Sean King, senior vice president of the Park Strategies consultancy in New York, told Newsweek the Chinese market is less important to Taiwan businesses than when the tariff exemptions first went into effect.
China accounted for just over 35 percent of Taiwanese exports last year, continuing a downward trend from a high of nearly 44 percent in 2020 as Taiwan seeks to diversify its trade partners and decrease China’s economic leverage over it.
“As seen in the 2014 Sunflower Movement, Taiwan people tend to put principles over profits. If not, they’d have willingly ceded sovereignty to Beijing long ago,” he said.
The Sunflower Movement grew out of mass protests against an ultimately suspended cross-strait framework for trade and investment that opponents said would give China undue influence over Taiwan’s economy and sovereignty.
King pointed out that Lai’s DPP, which lost its majority in January elections, has two years until the next round of electoral contests.
“Hence these petty tariff reinstatements are likely to have, at most, negligible political ramifications within Taiwan and will instead probably only further sour people there against the mainland,” he said.
Political Pressure
Just days before Lai took assumed the role of Taiwan’s president, China announced sanctions on five talk show pundits who are vocal in their criticisms of Beijing.
Chen Binhua said the pundits had “deceived some people on the island, incited hostility and confrontation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, and hurt the feelings of compatriots on both sides.”
The sanctions, which bar Chinese companies from doing business with the Taiwanese individuals and associated organizations, are largely symbolic since their targets are unlikely to be planning significant business activities there.
The move recalls similar sanctions China placed on Taiwan’s then-foreign minister, legislative speaker, and premier in 2021.
Military Pressure
Three days after Lai’s inauguration, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) encircled Taiwan with air, sea, and ground-based exercises in a “powerful punishment,” from May 23-24. Taipei said China’s “irrational provocations” undermined regional stability, and deployed its own defense assets to track the Chinese forces’ movements.
The drills were the largest in the area since August 2022, when China signaled its displeasure following then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi‘s visit to Taipei.
PLA activity in the Taiwan Strait continues to rise after a relative lull in January and February.
Driven in part by the May 23-24 drills, last month saw the second-highest monthly total of Chinese warplanes violating Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, according to Ben Lewis, co-founder of Chinese military analysis platform PLATracker.
An ADIZ is an area where passing foreign aircraft are required to identify themselves. It differs from territorial airspace in that failure to comply is not considered a violation under international law.
Lewis told Newsweek these numbers mark a “return to regularly scheduled programming for the PLA.”
“Good weather and political developments have played into it, but I think this level of activity is here to stay,” he added.
Taiwan’s coast guard claimed it had driven Chinese coast guard vessels from “restricted waters” off Matsu and Kinmen, two Taiwan-controlled island counties situated just off the Chinese coast.
China’s coast guard has stepped up patrols near Kinmen in particular since February, when a pair of Chinese fishermen drowned during a pursuit by Taiwan’s coast guard.
China says it is ensuring public safety. Analysts previously told Newsweek Beijing means to use patrols to normalize its presence there and deny Taiwan full control.
U.S. urges ‘meaningful dialogue’
Washington firmly opposes “Beijing’s efforts to use Taiwan’s political transition—part of a normal, routine democratic process—as a pretext for coercive measures,” a spokesperson for the U.S. State Department reiterated to Newsweek
“We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure against Taiwan and instead engage in meaningful dialogue with Taiwan,” they added.
