- Taiwan’s unification with China is at the heart of President Xi Jinping’s ambitions, but the costs to Beijing of a conflict would be staggering.
- A new report by the German Marshall Fund outlines the worst-case scenario for the mainland, including the potential loss of roughly 100,000 military personnel and devastating economic damage.
- The report warns that even with these high costs, Xi may be compelled to strike, and deterring China from attacking Taiwan will require convincing Xi that victory would be unlikely and escalation hard to control.
Taiwan’s unification with China sits at the heart of President Xi Jinping’s ambitions. But the costs to Beijing of a conflict would be staggering — in lives lost, economic damage, military credibility and domestic stability. Still, none of this guarantees Xi won’t act.
Beijing has said it wants to unify peacefully with the island, which it claims as its territory, although it has never ruled out using force. A new report by the Washington-based think tank German Marshall Fund outlines the worst-case scenario for the mainland. Most academic wargaming focuses on the risks for Taiwan and the US, but this study, edited by GMF’s Indo-Pacific Managing Director Bonnie Glaser and written by respected China and Taiwan experts, is notable for its assessment of China’s weaknesses.
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