Maritime autonomous systems have been identified as an initial field Japan could collaborate in with the United States, Britain and Australia under their AUKUS security pact as the U.S.-led grouping also launches talks with Canada, New Zealand and South Korea to join its advanced capabilities program, known as Pillar II.
After singling out Tokyo in April as a potential candidate for Pillar II projects, AUKUS leaders said in a joint statement Wednesday that the two sides are “exploring opportunities to improve interoperability of their maritime autonomous systems as an initial area of cooperation.”
The move follows consultations earlier this year, and the emphasis on collaboration plans with Japan suggests those may be advancing faster than tie-ups with the other potential partners.
The statement, which marked the third anniversary of the AUKUS partnership, stressed the group’s intention to “leverage Japan’s deep technical expertise,” but provided no timeline as to when Japan or the other three countries — all of which are close U.S. allies — are expected to join Pillar II projects.
Those projects include areas such as hypersonics, anti-submarine warfare and cyberweapons, as well as quantum computing, electronic warfare and artificial intelligence.
The Maritime Self-Defense Force has prioritized the adoption of unmanned maritime systems not only for information-gathering and surveillance, but also for a wide range of missions, including mine-countermeasures and combat support.
The MSDF plans to field two divisions of unmanned assets, including surface, amphibious, aerial and underwater vehicles, over the coming 10 years. Japan said in its latest defense white paper that combining these assets with artificial intelligence and manned equipment would be a “game-changer that fundamentally transforms force structure and ways of warfare, enabling Japan to gain asymmetrical superiority in the air, sea and underwater domains.”
Commonly known as drones, these systems come in all shapes and sizes, and can be used in different areas, particularly in dangerous environments, and allow for long-term continuous operation. They are designed to minimize human losses while substantially adding to a force’s capabilities.
The Japanese government has already announced plans to domestically produce autonomous underwater vehicles by 2030 and has been rapidly increasing spending on military drones.
“Including Japan into Pillar II would make great sense given Japan’s technological advancements in AI and robotics,” said Sebastian Maslow, an international relations expert and associate professor at the University of Tokyo, noting that Japan and the U.S. have also agreed to collaborate on other cutting-edge technologies such as counter-hypersonic systems, including the Glide Phase Interceptor, that might be shared within AUKUS.
Tokyo’s future contributions to Pillar II could also include providing technology for anti-drone lasers, electromagnetic barriers and big-data analysis, he added.
Geopolitically, experts say the AUKUS expansion plans should be viewed as part of Washington’s efforts to link the various small security groupings in the Indo-Pacific that have either sprung up or solidified in recent years such as “the Quad” and revitalized trilateral defense cooperation between the Japan, the U.S. and South Korea.
“This integration reflects the growing robustness and militarization of (U.S.-led) security cooperation in the region,” Maslow said, adding that the moves come as Tokyo has been making strides in defense cooperation with all three AUKUS countries, including through joint military exercises, force posture agreements, industrial integration and tech projects.
But while joining AUKUS would certainly have benefits for Tokyo, it would also come with challenges and risks.
Not only are there lingering concerns about Japan’s lack of strong cyberdefenses and tough rules for guarding secrets, Tokyo’s participation would likely also further damage its already tense relationship with Beijing, since the pact is widely seen as part of U.S.-led efforts to counter China’s regional assertiveness.
“These moves … risk escalating security competition and further heightening tensions in the Indo-Pacific,” Maslow said.
The AUKUS announcement also comes after former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, a front-runner to be Japan’s next prime minister, proposed that Tokyo take the lead in creating a NATO-style collective-security arrangement in Asia.
Asked about the issue, U.S. Assistant U.S. Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific Daniel Kritenbrink called the proposal hasty.
“It’s too early to talk about collective security in that context, and (the creation of) more formal institutions,” he told a forum Tuesday.
The AUKUS announcement did not propose that either Japan, Canada, South Korea or New Zealand participate in the pact’s first pillar, which involves delivering conventionally armed, nuclear-powered attack submarines to Australia from the early 2030s.
