China does not advertise its new submarine designs in the way virtually every other country does. Information in Chinese state media is extremely limited; nothing which forewarns of a specific new class of boat, or reveals the construction numbers. There are sometimes rumors, but that’s about it. There are no official announcements or fancy graphics.
All this is true of a new type of submarine has been observed at a Chinese shipyard. The submarine was launched without public reporting in April 2024, and was revealed by naval expert Tom Shugart in July. The new submarine features X-form rudders, a first for Chinese submarines.
The Mystery Submarine
So the submarine is something of a mystery. The most straightforward explanation is that it is a derivative of the Type-039A-C Yuan class. This is the main conventionally powered (non-nuclear) submarine in service with the Chinese Navy. China is currently producing an export variant of these at the same shipyard for Pakistan as Hangor class. The current model in series production for the PLAN is the Type-039C which features a distinctive stealthily shaped sail.
The new submarine has similar proportions to its forward section as the Yuan. This suggests that the forward hull, with its sonar and torpedo room, is similar. Behind the sail it appears significantly longer however, and id differentiated by x-form rudders.
The x-form rudders can be seen as a progressive upgrade over the traditional cruciform type found on other Chinese submarines. Although some Chinese extra-large uncrewed underwater vehicles (XLUUVs) already have them. They are generally regarded as better for agility, particularly in shallow water.
The difference isn’t fight winning however and they come with disadvantages as well, particularly in the case of a control jam. For this reason x-form rudders are only slowly being adopted for nuclear submarines whose high speed reduces the margins of error. But this is less of a concern on slower submarines like this one.
Vertically Launched Missiles?
The increased hull length may indicate the addition of a vertical launch system (VLS) for missiles. This is an increasingly important consideration in submarines but is less common in non-nuclear submarines which are generally smaller. The trend in non-nuclear submarines has been set by the South Korean KSS-III and Israeli Drakon Class. If this new submarine does have a VLS behind the sail it can likely accommodate between four and eight missiles, depending on their diameter.
China has been experimenting with VLS on submarines since the introduction of the Type-032 Qing class test boat. This has four small diameter VLS tubes forward of the sail. These were recently modified with a raised deck over them, suggesting a new missile is being tested.
Outlook: A Highly Potent Threat
If the VLS is fitted then it may carry anti-ship ballistic missiles, or land attack missiles which are too large to launch through the torpedo tubes. The Yuan class already has cruise missiles which can be carried in the torpedo room.
An alternative explanation for the increased length may be a new or improved form of propulsion. It is difficult for this alone to account for the increased size given that the Yuan class already has space for air independent power (AIP). Therefore the VLS explanation appears more likely at this stage.
Analysts will no doubt be watching this submarine closely, hoping to find out more. If it does include a VLS then it will make the Chinese submarine one of the most potent non-nuclear boats in the world. This will be something of an upset for planners who can currently put the PLAN conventional submarine force in a box marked ‘local relevance only’. China’s naval might continues to grow in quality as well as size.
