Beijing has denied since launching One Belt, One Road (OBOR) in 2013 that the infrastructure scheme is a tool for expanding geopolitical influence. Instead, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) claims that OBOR is a global development platform aimed at inclusive, multilateral cooperation and common development toward a shared future.
Realistically, OBOR poses a multifaceted strategic threat to the United States and its Allies and Partners by expanding Beijing’s influence through infrastructure investments in over 150 countries. Moreover, the program threatens the sovereignty of scores of debtor nations ensnared in its projects.
By embedding dual-use infrastructure — civilian projects with latent military capabilities — into strategic locations worldwide, Beijing procures access to global choke points and projects power in regions critical to other nations’ security interests, especially in Africa, the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific. China now holds stakes in 91 ports across 43 countries, enabling the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to expand its operational reach under the guise of commercial development.
The U.S. and its Allies and Partners must assess the full extent of this evolving challenge and formulate more robust countermeasures to safeguard their strategic prowess globally.
The Pitfalls of China’s OBOR
OBOR has led to debt burdens, labor disputes and cultural tensions in host nations, issues that may erode trust, fostering instability and resentment toward China. This presents opportunities for others to safeguard their security interests by strengthening alliances, expanding military partnerships and countering China’s influence.
OBOR’s opaque lending practices have resulted in projects failing to deliver promised economic returns, with many African and Asian countries accumulating unsustainable debt to Chinese lenders. About 80% of China’s loans target nations already facing debt distress. Through 2023, China had loaned more than $1 trillion to more than 150 nations. In 2023, the Republic of the Congo’s debt to China was reported at $3.2 billion, accounting for about 20.9% of the country’s gross domestic product that year. Djibouti’s external debt surged to about 76% of GDP in 2023, with China holding more than $1.4 billion, equivalent to 45% of the country’s GDP.
Angola’s situation also is critical, with Chinese loans constituting about 40% of the nation’s total debt and debt payments consuming about half of its budget annually. Pakistan faced the repayment of $7.2 billion to China in 2025, reflecting ongoing debt-servicing challenges.
China has emerged as the leading debt collector in the developing world, with the 75 most vulnerable countries facing a record high $22 billion debt repayment to China in 2025, the Australia-based Lowy Institute reported in May 2025. The think tank revealed that in 54 of 120 developing nations with accessible data, repayments to China surpassed total payments to the Paris Club, a group of major creditors seeking sustainable solutions for debtor nations.
The World Bank’s International Development Association identified nations at risk of tumbling into a debt crisis, including Cambodia, Fiji, Kiribati, Laos, the Maldives, the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu.
Once the primary provider of financing to developing countries, China is now the largest individual recipient of their debt repayments, according to the Lowy Institute.
“Pressure from Chinese state lending, along with surging repayments to a range of international private creditors, is putting enormous financial strain on developing economies. The result is rising debt vulnerability and the crowding out of critical spending priorities such as health, education, poverty reduction and climate adaptation,” the think tank said.
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Experts have warned that a significant portion of China’s loans were unsustainable. The ease of financing allowed countries to pursue extravagant infrastructure projects, raising concerns the projects would never recover their investments.
In Vanuatu, for instance, the May 2024 collapse of the national airline was linked to the country’s indebtedness to China, the Australian Financial Review newspaper reported. The airline shut down as government officials made widespread cuts to meet loan repayments for China-financed infrastructure. At the time, China was Vanuatu’s second-biggest financial benefactor, after Australia, providing $483 million in aid and loans, including $90 million for the South Pacific’s biggest wharf.
Studies show that 35% of OBOR projects encounter significant problems, including labor violations, cultural disputes and corruption, compared to 21% of non-OBOR Chinese government-backed projects. China’s infrastructure projects often rely on imported labor for skilled and managerial positions, relegating local workers to low-skilled jobs. In countries such as Angola and Ethiopia, Chinese firms primarily employ Chinese staff in senior roles, limiting local skill development and economic benefits. This also restricts technology and knowledge transfer to host countries.
A 2023 report by the U.S.-based nonprofit China Labor Watch documented widespread and egregious labor abuses in Indonesia, including passport confiscation, poor contracting practices, wage withholding, workplace injuries, unsafe conditions, lack of proper work permits, restricted movement and violence for violations of workplace rules. A survey in Cambodia found that 57% of Chinese construction workers had their passports held by employers. Labor abuses have fueled social unrest, with at least 619 overseas Chinese workers killed in attacks between 2006 and 2016.
Cultural insensitivity also fosters resentment, weakening local governance and stability. Chinese project teams often disregard local laws and customs, resulting in disputes. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor has sparked protests in Pakistan’s Balochistan province over exclusion and disruption caused by construction. Similar tensions have emerged in Kazakhstan and Malaysia, where concerns over land rights, sovereignty and environmental impact have sparked opposition.
China’s governance model also favors authoritarianism, surveillance and limited transparency, challenging international laws. These issues fuel skepticism, with countries reconsidering OBOR partnerships. Samoa, for instance, canceled a $128 million China-backed port development in 2021, calling it excessive for a small nation already heavily indebted to Beijing.
Even though many OBOR partner nations avoid overt alignment with the U.S. to preserve economic relationships with China, growing dissatisfaction with the initiative indirectly benefits the U.S. position. The U.S. should adopt a long-term strategy of patience, building trust, deepening and renewing relationships, and gradually positioning itself as the more sustainable and credible partner.
Innovative Measures
The U.S. and like-minded nations have adopted a multidimensional strategy by reinforcing regional alliances and establishing economic alternatives to OBOR. The Blue Dot Network (BDN), launched in 2019 by Australia, Japan and the U.S. with $60 billion in funding, certifies infrastructure projects that meet high standards of transparency, sustainability and resilience. Its quality-assurance mechanism attracts private investment, promoting responsible development while serving as a strategic alternative to OBOR’s opaque practices and predatory lending. The U.S. International Development Finance Corp. (DFC) has allocated $60 billion to BDN-aligned projects in countries such as India and Vietnam.
The Group of Seven (G7) leading industrialized nations launched an OBOR alternative in 2021 to address a $40 trillion infrastructure gap in developing countries by 2035. The Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment focuses on mobilizing investments in developing countries, aligning with the BDN’s principles. The initiative provides $600 billion for sustainable, inclusive projects and fosters economic stability, regional connectivity and strategic cooperation.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), launched in 2023 by the Group of 20 industrialized and emerging-market nations, is a trade and infrastructure initiative. It promotes economic integration through rail, ports and energy networks, and boosts strategic ties among participating countries by reducing reliance on China-controlled critical minerals and cutting cargo transit times between India and Europe.
India refused to join OBOR and warned that the scheme is part of Beijing’s debt-trap diplomacy, a strategy of extending large loans to developing nations with terms that can lead to financial dependency and strategic concessions.
The European Union and the U.S., in partnership with Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia, launched the Trans-African Corridor (TAC) in March 2025 to enhance connectivity and economic integration across Africa by developing transportation networks, including railways and roads, facilitating trade and supporting sustainable, inclusive growth.
The U.S. also is a major shareholder in multilateral development banks, which promote transparency, sustainability and good governance in infrastructure financing, offering credible alternatives to OBOR. Through initiatives such as the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, Washington challenges OBOR’s practices by strengthening U.S. leadership in setting global financial and digital standards. This promotes openness and interoperability, while fostering a trustworthy regulatory environment for investment and innovation.
At the same time, the U.S. is supporting peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific, particularly by deterring China’s destabilizing attempts to dominate the South China Sea, a vital maritime corridor. Key measures include bolstering security partnerships to uphold freedom of navigation and maintaining a forward presence in contested areas. Similarly, the Quadrilateral (Quad) partnership of Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. is strengthening maritime security and digital connectivity in the Indo-Pacific.
Among other initiatives, the U.S. has invested $8 billion to upgrade military facilities in its territory of Guam and is improving additional Philippine sites under the longtime allies’ Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, including one that is 160 kilometers from self-governed Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory and threatens to forcibly annex. Australia and the U.S. also pledged $810 million for Pacific Island Countries to counter China’s attempts to gain influence in the region.
Urgent Next Steps
The U.S. and its Allies and Partners must continue to advance viable alternatives to Beijing’s OBOR scheme, including by accelerating implementation and expansion of initiatives such as the DFC, which by 2024 had committed about $9 billion across 130 projects globally.
U.S.-led countermeasures must improve operational efficiencies to appeal to countries seeking immediate infrastructure progress. To more effectively counter OBOR, the U.S. and its Allies and Partners must improve coordination mechanisms to unify multiple initiatives through a coherent strategic framework that integrates development aid, private-sector investment and international partnerships. The U.S. should prioritize advancing viable infrastructure alternatives such as the IMEC and the TAC to reduce dependency on China-led projects. Regional collaboration platforms such as the Quad should be expanded to pool resources and coordinate investment in infrastructure, digital technology and security. Enhanced security cooperation — including joint military exercises, maritime domain awareness and patrols — also is essential for safeguarding critical infrastructure and trade routes from strategic encroachment.
Sustained commitment and adaptive strategies will be essential to long-term success. Initiatives should prioritize strengthening financial mechanisms to support infrastructure development, deepening alliances with key partners and leveraging technological innovation to maintain a competitive edge. The U.S. and its Allies and Partners must continue implementing a consistent, unified strategy while fostering trust and cooperation to uphold global leadership and effectively counter China’s OBOR scheme.
About the Author
