If there is a flourishing future for Australia in a region dominated by China (and without a US presence) I want to know about it. I cannot imagine it, but it seems many critics of the Australia–US alliance can—let’s hear it.
When it comes to the effect that China’s rise will have on Australia, my instinct is that it will eventually hurt us, and that remaining a truly sovereign nation over time will mean avoiding getting stuck in a China-dominated region.
Many issues have come in and out of focus with the ebb and flow of the Australia–China relationship. But that aim of maintaining Australia’s sovereignty has guided my strategic thinking and reinforced my belief in the indispensable role of the United States in balancing China’s growing power.
From my perspective, cutting the cord connecting us to the US is the last thing Canberra should want to do.
This way of thinking has, admittedly, become a bit of a habit.
It strikes me that I may be wrong, but critics of the alliance may be in an equally deep analytical groove, making it as hard for them as it is for me to change track or imagine different regional futures.
We all need to try harder to explain why we hold the positions we do.
The onus has long been on the China critics to explain what it is they are so worried about. Conversely, too few analysts and observers arguing in favour of breaking away from the US have come under the same type of pressure to make the case (at least in sufficient detail and over a long enough timeframe) for such a fundamental change to our national-security approach.
Part of the problem is that negative feelings about US President Donald Trump draw most public interest and commentary on the Australia–US alliance to the here and now, and much of it is petty.
Some analysts and observers are thinking well ahead and arguing soberly for Australia to do whatever it takes to avoid being drawn into a military conflict between the US and China. They sometimes cite that as a reason to reduce our reliance on the US. However, it’s important to strike a better balance between the headline of the day and deep thinking about what we truly care about as a nation and why.
As tempting as they are to conflate, these are two separate things.
We need to remind ourselves that Canberra and other regional capitals will be grappling with the China challenge long after Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have exited stage left. What we really need to think about are long-term structural challenges.
From this vantage point, there are some things we can and should all agree on.
We should all be able to agree that China wants to remove the US from Asia, by force or otherwise. If it were successful in doing so, many things would change, and not all of those changes would be good for Australia.
Another thing we can all agree on is that while the risk of a military exchange between China and the US leading to a regional war is real and increasing, it is not certain to occur.
But that is not a pass for imagining what could happen if a regional conflict were to break out, or what may unfold after a regional conflict that the US and its allies lose.
As I’ve previously argued, a China that has forcibly removed the US from Asia would probably for a time want to portray itself as a strong but largely benign regional hegemon.
In that event, such a period of stability would give some people reason to think that Australia could flourish in a region without US power.
That scenario is imaginable, but we need to think further ahead still.
What would happen if a largely unchallenged China stopped caring about how the region perceives it and started asserting its dominance in a more overt fashion?
What affect would that have on the desire and capacity of China’s leaders to control what Canberra says and does, and how would greater compliance and control in the bilateral relationship manifest itself? How would that make us feel and what could we do about it?
Again, I might be wrong, but this to me is where the potential for flourishing quickly evaporates and the reality of being stuck in an uncomfortable position sets in.
The point is that these are all questions that need to be asked and answered by those with a view on the future of the Australia–US alliance.
A US withdrawal from the region—much less a decision taken by Canberra to wilfully walk away from the US and towards China—cannot be undone.
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