Brian P. Klein is founder of RidgePointGlobal, an international strategic advisory firm, and a former U.S. diplomat.
Democratic Asia needs to be more concerned about its own security. That’s one of the key takeaways from the continued uncertainty in the US presidential race. Putting Joe Biden’s debate performance to one side, both candidates have failed to address Indo-Pacific topics in any detail, adding to the uncertainty around U.S. foreign policy priorities starting next year. The threats, however, continue to grow regardless of who wins the election.
The risks to regional security keep compounding as China pushes limits, crosses red lines and ignores international norms. North Korea is likely to improve its military technology in exchange for arming Russia. In this environment, greater cooperation and bigger defense spending are crucial for Japan, South Korea, Australia, India, the Philippines and others to make sure that no matter what happens in Washington, they are well prepared to counter an upending of the peace that has prevailed for nearly half a century.
U.S. politics are also fraught with problems. They no longer revolve around predictable poles of liberal versus conservative foreign policy. Simple calculations of support are now far harder to make. Another Biden or Donald Trump administration will also face rising debt burdens and a public increasingly wary of international engagement, especially given the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Expect “burden sharing” to be the buzz phrase for the next four years from both Democrats and Republicans.
In this constrained environment, the differences between the two candidates’ Asia policy are less stark than they appear. If Trump wins, then he’ll insist everyone pay more. According to him, countries are taking advantage of the U.S. and they need to increase their spending or, as he told NATO, the U.S. wouldn’t defend them against Russian aggression. That may be an empty threat depending on who controls Congress, but he can certainly make life difficult for European, and by extension, Asia allies if he isn’t convinced they aren’t paying full fare.
A second Biden term would certainly be more supportive of alliances, but as President Biden’s mental faculties continue to be in question, that will cast a shadow over his completing another four year term in office. And the perception of weakness and the uncertainty caused by it may play a part in triggering more aggressive North Korean or Chinese actions in the region.
As China becomes more emboldened, conflict over Taiwan, the South China Sea, or potentially both is no longer a geopolitical tail risk. Beijing quickly moved from cutting off Philippine ships from rich fishing grounds to seizing Philippine boats, all without consequence. Each incremental gain becomes harder to deter or roll back. And provocative actions could increase in the region leading up to the U.S. presidential election to take advantage of increased uncertainty.
Countries have had well over a decade to prepare as Beijing professed “peaceful development” of sand-dredged islands in areas that the Philippines, Vietnam, and other states claim. Those outposts grew with radar installations, runways, and barracks, all under the public eye of satellite images that showed the dramatic changes. What did not happen then, despite a United Nations ruling in favor of claimant countries against China’s incursions, is a concerted effort to counter this expansionism. China has changed the status quo in the South China Sea. The UN and the ASEAN Regional Forum have been unable or unwilling to act.
This is why immediate progress is critical on the recently concluded Japan-U.S. working group on missile production, a bilateral negotiation on ship repairs, and the creation of a U.S.-Japan-South Korea secretariat to align regional policies.
The recent NATO meeting in Washington also highlighted the interest in greater cooperation with Asia. Japan announced a joint military drill with NATO countries around Hokkaido, sending a strong signal that multilateral maintaining regional peace and stability goes well beyond the region.
