During his first term as US president, Donald Trump was widely seen as a friend to Taiwan, having bolstered support for the island through increased arm sales and upgraded diplomatic visits.
But that goodwill was nowhere to be found on the campaign trail, with Trump repeatedly claiming that the self-ruled democracy should pay the US more for “protection” and that it had “stolen” America’s chip business.
That’s why Taiwan is buckling up for what could be a far more volatile relationship with Washington, its most important security guarantor, now that Trump has clenched a historic political comeback.
“I think most people are anxious,” Professor Chen Ming-chi, a former senior advisor to Taiwan’s National Security Council, told CNN. “Because of Trump’s unpredictability, we don’t know if Taiwan will be safer or more dangerous under his second term.”
What is certain, observers say, is that Taiwan will have to pay more for its own defense and step up engagement with the Trump administration to shore up American support.
China’s ruling Communist Party views Taiwan as part of its territory, despite never having controlled it, and has vowed to take the island by force if necessary. Under the Taiwan Relations Act, Washington is legally required to provide the island with the means to defend itself, and it supplies Taipei with defensive weaponry.
The Taiwanese government has expressed confidence in bilateral ties, citing longstanding bipartisan support for the island. Three senior Taiwanese security officials told CNN there are clear communication channels through which both sides discuss substantive issues, irrespective of past leadership changes, and military communication channels in particular have “flourished.”
In a statement issued after the November election, Taiwan President Lai Ching-te stressed the importance of Taiwan’s friendship with the US and said Taipei is willing to be “the most reliable partner.”
Experts say Taiwan will be closely watching Trump’s foreign policy and defense appointments, his response to Russia’s war in Ukraine and his demands on allies for clues on the future of the relationship.
The stakes of that relationship are higher than ever as Beijing ramps up military intimidation of Taiwan, sending fighter jets and warships near the island almost on a daily basis and launching large-scale drills to punish what it calls “separatist acts.”
This week, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said China fielded its largest regional maritime deployment in decades, as it braced for expected military exercises after Lai sparked Beijing’s ire by making unofficial stops in Hawaii and the US territory of Guam.
Beijing has not announced any military drills or acknowledged the large-scale deployment cited by Taipei. US officials have said China’s regional naval deployments are elevated but consistent with other large exercises in the past.
Under pressure
But one thing’s for sure: Trump is a less vocal supporter of Taiwan than Joe Biden. The outgoing president has repeatedly said the US would be willing to intervene militarily should the Chinese attack the island, before the White House would walk back his comments.
The US has long been governed by a policy of “strategic ambiguity” over exactly how it would respond to an invasion of Taiwan. Trump, though, has taken that ambiguity to another level.
Asked by the Wall Street Journal if he would use military force against a blockade on Taiwan by China, Trump said it would not come to that because Xi respected him and knows he’s “crazy.” Instead, he said he would slap 150% to 200% tariffs on Beijing.
