The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) military coercion of Taiwan is a political warfare tactic that aims for psychological effects, John Dotson, deputy director of the Global Taiwan Institute (GTI), said in a late July 2024 panel discussion on PRC offensives against the self-governed democracy.
Beijing claims Taiwan is part of the PRC and consistently threatens military action to annex the island.
Formal and informal partners in the region and beyond are already contributing to security across the Taiwan Strait and can deepen ties to deter the PRC’s malign actions, experts said during the discussion hosted by GTI, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank.
The PRC deceptively refers to its aggressive measures that stop short of acts of war as public opinion struggles, Dotson said. Although Beijing claims its actions are spontaneous, the coercion is likely planned in advance, Dotson added.
Recent military operations aimed at alarming Taiwan’s population include simulated air strikes, encirclement exercises and a rehearsal for blockading the island.
The PRC also seeks to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait by normalizing its coast guard presence in Taiwan-controlled waters, conducting military exercises increasingly closer to the island and sending military aircraft across the median line that had served as a boundary to ease tensions.
The response should be to “fight back in the political warfare dimension,” said Dan Blumenthal, director of Asian studies at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
Blumenthal proposed a regional air defense architecture that includes Taiwan and its formal and informal partners, along with law enforcement support for fishing and survey crews operating legally in and around Taiwan.
Supporting Taipei diplomatically and championing its role on an international stage can contribute to deterrence, said Alexander Gray, a senior fellow at GTI and the Washington, D.C.-based American Foreign Policy Council.
“Obviously, having the ability to galvanize a coalition of the large states in the region to resist — militarily if necessary — PRC coercion … that’s the ultimate key,” he said. However, formal and informal diplomatic partners also lend strength and build deterrence, Gray added.
The world has seen that in action as European countries with informal ties to Taiwan push back on the PRC’s coercion, Gray said. The United States, which maintains a robust informal relationship with Taiwan, has a role in maintaining or expanding Taiwan’s diplomatic ties and its participation in international organizations, he stated.
A global presence also bolsters Taiwan’s ability to forestall PRC coercion, according to Gray, who advocated for U.S. efforts to include Taipei in groups such as the International Civil Aviation Organization and the World Health Organization.
He also suggested involving Taiwan in international consortiums to bring infrastructure and other development to partner nations. The U.S. can “advocate that Taiwan should have a robust role in these types of projects, and there is an imperative for Taiwan to be represented in the development space in an open way because it serves all of our interests,” Gray said.
Meanwhile, panelists said, the U.S. and its Allies and Partners have built deterrence across the Indo-Pacific against a PRC threat. The Australia-United Kingdom-U.S. strategic partnership is bolstering defense capabilities. Japan plans to double its defense spending. The Philippines and the U.S. have expanded cooperation. Papua New Guinea has forged security pacts with Australia and the U.S.
“That’s a pretty significant structural change,” said Rush Doshi, director of the China Strategy Initiative at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations. “You could have four more years of that and change the facts on the ground.”
