The EU has opened talks with Azerbaijan to replace more Russian gas exports to Europe. Some question the feasibility of piping gas via Ukraine when Kyiv’s deal with Russia expires at the end of the year.
Ukraine has thousands of kilometers of underground pipelines that bring Russian natural gas into Western Europe. Before Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, nearly 150 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas flowed annually through the Soviet-built pipelines.
Since the war began, EU states have cut their reliance on Russian fossil fuels, while Russia has slowed gas deliveries through Ukraine from 40 bcm, which the two sides agreed to in 2019, to nearly 15 bcm last year.
The five-year agreement with Russian state energy firm Gazprom to continue Ukraine’s role as a gas transit route expires at the end of 2024. The deal is the only remaining trade and political agreement between Moscow and Kyiv.
Ukraine and the EU have downplayed the prospect of a new deal, as diplomatic ties have been severed by the conflict.
Brussels said the EU states that rely most heavily on Russian gas via Ukraine — Austria, Slovakia, Hungary and Italy — could boost imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) or source gas via other pipelines into the European Union. Moscow, on the other hand, said last week it was open to renewing the agreement.
“Transit through its territory depends on Ukraine. They have their own established rules. It depends on their desire. Russia is ready to supply,” Russian state news agencies cited Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak as saying.
The EU has instead started negotiating with Azerbaijan to import more of the country’s natural gas, which could potentially run through Ukraine’s pipelines and help maintain the war-torn country’s role as an energy transit country.
Azerbaijan increased gas exports to Europe by 56% in the first year of the war and aims to double them by 2027. If exports continue to rise as they have in the first six months of the year, deliveries to Europe are expected to reach 12.8 bcm by the end of 2024.
Hikmat Hajiyev, an Azerbaijani presidential advisor, told Reuters news agency last month that both the EU and Kyiv have asked Azerbaijan to facilitate talks with Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskky confirmed last week in an interview with Bloomberg News that negotiations were underway.
