Anthony W. Holmes was special adviser for North Korea at the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2017 to 2021 and senior expert for international relations at the U.S. Special Operations Command HQ from 2021 to 2024. He is a senior nonresident fellow at the Project 2049 Institute and a senior consultant for the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command.
Until U.S. President Joe Biden decided not to seek reelection, North Korea thought the presidential election would be a contest between him and former President Donald Trump. If Pyongyang’s Foreign Ministry and intelligence analysts were tracking the polls, as they undoubtedly were, then North Korea also expected former Trump to prevail in November.