India and Afghanistan will launch direct air cargo flights in a move that deepens their economic ties and signals a strategic shift in South Asia’s power dynamics, as both countries grow increasingly estranged from their mutual neighbour Pakistan.
Analysts say the initiative reflects Kabul’s push to diversify trade routes and reduce dependence on Islamabad following deadly border clashes, while also underscoring New Delhi’s effort to reassert influence in a country where it once played a key development role.
The decision to launch the cargo flights was announced by India’s Ministry of External Affairs on Tuesday, following a week-long visit to Delhi by Alhaj Nooruddin Azizi, Afghanistan’s minister of industry and commerce.
The opening of the route will ensure faster transfer of fresh fruits and medicinal herbs from landlocked Afghanistan, which faces delays in ground transit, according to local media reports.
Last month, Pakistan closed its border with Afghanistan for trade and civilian movement following deadly military clashes. Now, Kabul is seeking to increase trade with India and has urged Delhi to open cargo hubs on Afghan soil.
India and Afghanistan would now post commercial representatives in their respective embassies and set up a joint chamber of commerce and industry to streamline trade-related coordination, the government statement said.
“The visit reflects the strong commitment of both sides for deepening bilateral engagement and cooperation in trade, economy and investments,” the statement added.
The two countries are also reportedly seeking to bolster bilateral trade by leveraging Iran’s Chabahar port that bypasses Pakistan.
Tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan escalated on Tuesday after the Taliban claimed 10 people, including children, were killed in a strike, allegations quickly denied by Islamabad.
Islamabad attacked several areas in Afghanistan, including Khost, Kunar and Paktika provinces bordering Pakistan, Afghan Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said on social media, adding that Kabul planned to respond. Islamabad denied carrying out any attacks.
Tensions have been high ever since Islamabad accused the Taliban of hosting militant groups that plan attacks in Pakistan. The neighbouring nations failed to extend a tenuous truce brokered by Qatar and Turkey in October, despite meeting twice to end cross-border attacks that killed several soldiers on both sides.
Kabul’s growing relationship with Pakistan’s arch-rival India has added to an evolving geopolitical situation in South Asia, as tensions between Delhi and Islamabad have also been high since a military clash between the two countries in May.
Islamabad is wary of Kabul’s increasing engagement with India, which it has accused of supporting Afghan militants. Delhi has denied the claims.
Sanjiv Kohli, an Indian diplomat, said India had maintained its policy of delivering humanitarian help to Afghanistan. Delhi provided aid to Kabul even during earthquakes in Afghanistan in August and earlier this month.
“Now that the relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan is rapidly deteriorating, India is stepping up its engagement with Afghanistan in an effort to prevent any spillover of insecurity into the wider region,” he told This Week in Asia.
Afghanistan, which is highly dependent on agriculture for its economy, has in recent months diverted more goods to Iran and Central Asia after border clashes with Pakistan led to the closure of key crossings.
With Pakistan closing its airspace for Indian flights since the conflict with Delhi earlier this year, Indian air operators have not been able to service Afghanistan.
“Pakistan has been using border trade as leverage. This can deeply [affect] the economic and strategic security of Afghanistan besides causing immense hardships to its people. Afghanistan has therefore been seeking a major [upgrade] of its economic and commercial engagement with India,” Kohli said.
“India is obviously responding with a positive and constructive approach.”
Afghanistan Minister Azizi offered Indian companies five-year tax breaks and free land for investing in his country. Bilateral trade currently stands at US$1 billion, which is considered far below potential as Afghanistan is blessed with mineral resources as well as oil and gas.
Srikumar Menon, an Indian diplomat, told This Week in Asia that Delhi’s engagement, though without formal diplomatic recognition of the Taliban, provided India with the leverage to ensure continued flow of humanitarian aid and support to Afghan reconstruction and development projects vital to India’s strategic interests.
“After all, it helps to build influence and promote soft power to foster a stable and friendly Afghanistan in its neighbourhood,” he said.
Harsh Pant, a professor of international relations at King’s College London, said he expected a gradual evolution in India-Afghanistan ties.
“The Taliban regime realises that it requires, for its own economic development, India’s partnership as it is a regional economic power. I think that is why we are seeing increasing trade with India. Now whether that trade potential is realised or not remains to be seen because there are serious connectivity issues,” he said.
“That is something both sides will have to see how it can be resolved, but there is enormous potential and that needs to be tapped.”
Pant said India had been contributing to capacity building including infrastructure development in Afghanistan before the Taliban stormed to power four years ago, which had resulted in a pause.
Over the past few months, engagement between India and Afghanistan has been rapidly building up with a series of high-profile visits, including one by Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi last month – the first such trip to India by a Taliban leader since 2021.
Yashwant Deshmukh, an independent political commentator, said the increased engagement was because India had come to terms with the likelihood of the Taliban remaining in power for a long time.
For Indian businessmen, it made sense to invest in Afghanistan as the Taliban regime had assured that it would provide security, he said.
“Afghan-India relations were never bad. It was only a question of time before they started speaking with each other. On the other hand, the basic equation between the Taliban and Pakistan’s ISI [Inter-Services Intelligence] has broken,” he said.
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