Manila and Tokyo signed a landmark pact allowing troop deployment on each other’s soil. Neither US ally is on the best terms with Beijing.
Tensions are reaching a boiling point in the Asia-Pacific, and the Philippines may find itself caught in the cross hairs. As China and Japan trade barbs over Beijing’s growing assertiveness in the region, observers warn that any conflict between the two powers could have devastating spillover effects.
Tokyo sounded the alarm in its latest defence whitepaper, warning that heightened Chinese military activity around Taiwan risks stoking escalating tensions. Japan, which hosts more than 50,000 American troops, hundreds of US aircraft, and a carrier strike group, fears that a crisis over the self-governing island could spill over to its own territory – with its westernmost island just 110km (68 miles) away.
The Philippines, which has some 200,000 workers in Taiwan, faces its own challenges if conflict erupts. Geopolitical analyst Matteo Piasentini cautioned that “the concern may be real” as Beijing had already warned Manila not to “play with fire” when it comes to the Taiwan issue “if it cares about those workers”.
One potential flashpoint? The Philippines’ Taiwan-facing military bases in the north, which US forces can access under a recently expanded defence pact. Analyst Chester Cabalza warns that any Philippine intervention in the Taiwan Strait could incur Beijing’s wrath, further complicating the regional powder keg.
Just a day after Beijing had announced fresh military exercises in the western Pacific, Taiwan’s defence ministry on Thursday reported 66 Chinese aircraft swarming its airspace over one 24-hour span. This came on the heels of two days of large-scale Chinese drills around the island in May, which Beijing described as “severe punishment” for Taipei’s “separatist acts”.
Despite efforts to ease tensions, including a November meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the rift between the two powers remains stark. They continue to clash over the disputed Diaoyu Islands, which Tokyo administers and calls the Senkakus, with a Japanese destroyer even briefly sailing into Chinese waters last week – an act Beijing branded an “intentional provocation”.
Tokyo has launched an investigation into why the Suzutsuki, which had been dispatched to monitor Beijing’s military drills, ventured 12 nautical miles into territorial waters off the coast of Zhejiang province for a full 20 minutes, despite repeated warnings from Chinese vessels. In private talks with Chinese diplomats, Japan reportedly called the incident a “procedural error”.
