Polar-hardened drones that can operate across domains are indispensable for NATO’s Arctic deterrence, according to a report from the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
A fleet of airborne and maritime uncrewed autonomous systems (UAS) designed to operate in the region’s extreme environment would allow the 32-member security alliance to more closely monitor Russia’s military operations, according to the December 2025 report. In addition to small drones, uncrewed aircraft such as the United States Air Force’s MQ-9 Reaper, which has been effective at collecting intelligence, could be adapted to fill surveillance gaps over the vast Arctic, the CEPA reported. The U.S. Air Force also is developing artificial intelligence-enabled uncrewed aircraft — known as “loyal wingman” drones — to perform missions alongside, and under the command of, crewed warplanes that could include early-warning surveillance aircraft. Adapting such drones for Arctic operations merits study, the report said.
In the Arctic, melting sea ice is opening new shipping routes and access to natural resources, which is escalating commercial and military activity. China and Russia are investing in their uncrewed capabilities as they boost their presence in the High North.
“In short, the Arctic and Northern Europe, by extension, has become a front line for strategic competition,” U.S. Air Force Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, who serves as NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, told a Swedish security conference in January 2026, according to the U.S.-based publication Defense News.
NATO faces increasing threats such as hybrid warfare, airspace violations, satellite interference and risks to underwater infrastructure, said Grynkewich, who also leads the U.S. European Command.
The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) has seen changes in Russia’s Arctic activity and, to a lesser extent, China’s in the past year, according to U.S. Air Force Gen. Gregory Guillot, who heads NORAD and U.S. Northern Command.
The air and sea incursions into zones just outside North America have become more frequent and more coordinated, Guillot told the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. in January 2026. “I’d say the most consequential difference in 2025 has been the volume, the simultaneous volume,” he said.
As incursions mount, NATO must develop UAS for Arctic conditions, which the CEPA said would allow the alliance to pursue a “deterrence by detection” strategy.
“This means being able to track Russian submarine patrols leaving the Kola Peninsula, monitor aircraft flights across the Barents and Bering Seas, identify changes in Russia’s Arctic force posture and infrastructure, and detect potential surface and subsurface threats to critical infrastructure,” the report said.
The U.S. Army and drone manufacturers conducted a large-scale UAS and counter-UAS experiment in Alaska in November 2025 to evaluate performance in extreme cold.
“On the defensive side, I’ve been very pleased with the performance of the systems that we’ve brought up there from a counter-UAS perspective. I’ve been very pleased with how they operate up in the harsh conditions,” Guillot said.
While the CEPA report notes that drones can’t fully replace traditional capabilities, it says they are indispensable force multipliers in the High North. The report’s recommendations for NATO include:
- Alliance nations should accelerate acquisition of uncrewed systems designed for Arctic operations with components such as improved cold-rated batteries and thermal-management systems.
- Pre-positioning at bases throughout the High North of spare parts essential to sustain the high sortie rates of UAS in extreme weather.
- Consider establishing drone units with specialized training to free up crewed aircraft and ships for other missions.
“The next decade is a decisive window of opportunity,” the CEPA reported, emphasizing that nations that adapt fastest to the High North’s challenges will develop a “security architecture capable of deterring and defeating emerging threats.”
Sentry is a professional military magazine published by U.S. Strategic Command to provide a forum for national security personnel.
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