The risks of a cross-strait military accident are on the rise as Beijing steps up pressure on Taiwan, a former Taiwanese defence official has warned, citing the lack of direct communication channels between the two sides.
Andrew Yang Nien-dzu, who served as Taiwan’s deputy defence minister for four years and briefly held the role of minister, spoke to the South China Morning Post on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s premier security conference.
Yang raised concerns over the increasing “grey zone operations” by Beijing, including the more frequent activities by its coastguard forces near Taiwan. These were more difficult to handle, he said, as they “are not actually military operations but carry a military message.”
“Although there have not been accidental conflicts [between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait], this kind of activity has placed immense pressure on us,” he said.
Yang also voiced concerns about the lack of official communication between Beijing and Taipei since 2016.
Exchanges were suspended that year after the previous Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen took office and refused to accept the one-China principle. Formal talks remain halted under current leader William Lai Ching-te who, like Tsai, is from the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
“An unfortunate issue is that both sides of the strait cannot conduct normal dialogue or exchanges, [and this] would in turn increase misunderstanding and misjudgment,” Yang said.
Cross-strait tensions have been on the rise since Lai – whom Beijing regards as a “troublemaker” and a “dangerous separatist” – took office in May last year and adopted a combative tone, making statements like Taiwan and mainland China “are not subordinate to each other” and describing Beijing as a “hostile foreign force”.
Beijing has condemned his “stubborn Taiwan independence stance” and carried out at least three rounds of large-scale military drills near Taiwan, while continuing to fly its warplanes near the island on a daily basis.
The People’s Liberation Army was using a “salami slicing” approach, Yang said, as its near-daily patrols near Taiwan gradually cross the strait median line and move closer to the self-governed island, forcing Taipei to make defensive adjustments.
“This is indeed a depletion. Our intense defence preparation is a kind of depletion, while the intense military drills of the other side also depletes them,” he said.
He called for the establishment of lower-level communication channels to prevent misjudgments in cross-strait policymaking on both sides.
Yang now serves as secretary general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a think tank in Taipei.
He attended the Shangri-La Dialogue as a guest of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based think tank that organises the annual forum in Singapore. “IISS guest” is a technical designation used by the organisers to navigate the sensitivities of cross-strait relations without addressing Taiwan’s political status.
Yang was deputy defence minister for policy from 2009 to 2013, when Ma Ying-jeou – of the Beijing-friendly Kuomintang – was leader of Taiwan. He also served as defence minister in August 2013.
The issue of Taiwan has been a core focus of the Shangri-La Dialogue in recent years. US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth adopted a harsh tone on the matter when he addressed the forum on Saturday, warning regional leaders that the threat posed by Beijing was “real and could be imminent”.
He said this included Beijing’s efforts “to be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027”, though he added that “President [Donald] Trump has also said that Communist China will not invade Taiwan on his watch.”
Unlike previous years, Beijing sent a lower-ranking delegation to the forum, led by Hu Gangfeng, vice-president of the PLA National Defence University.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the United States, do not recognise the self-governed island as an independent state, but are opposed to changing the status quo by force.
Beijing and Taipei needed to “break the ice”, Yang emphasised, as he suggested launching lower-level cross-strait dialogue, such as among academics, to share views on “their interpretation of the situation, what has to be prevented, and what has to be improved”.
“If there is such a channel for the lower-level [policy advisers] to convey such information, the higher-level officials on both sides could prevent errors when making policy judgments.”
Yang also said he agreed with the Lai administration’s decision to boost defence spending, saying it was a “necessary move” to develop the island’s strength to delay or deter Beijing’s decision to use force against Taiwan.
The security expert, who has attended the Shangri-La Dialogue regularly since it launched in 2002, described the forum as an opportunity to “make friends” and exchange views.
Another Taiwanese delegate who attended in their private capacity was Lai I-chung, president of the Prospect Foundation, also a Taipei-based think tank.
Lai previously served in the DPP’s international and cross-strait affairs departments and was executive director of the party’s US mission from 1999 to 2000.
