The long-smoldering tensions between China and Taiwan have been entering a more precarious phase. In recent months, Beijing has threatened to severely punish Taiwanese citizens who challenge China’s claim to the island. More Chinese jets have buzzed the skies near it. Chinese Coast Guard ships have sailed near Taiwan’s outer islands.
And both sides have dug deeper into their opposing political positions.
When Lai Ching-te became Taiwan’s president in May, he vowed to stick with the China policies of his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen. Ms. Tsai sought to avoid confrontation even as she defended Taiwan’s right to self-rule and rejected Beijing’s assertion of sovereignty.
Yet Mr. Lai, while keeping Taiwan’s basic policy toward China unchanged, has been blunter in rebuffing its demands. Ms. Tsai, a former trade law specialist, chose her words about China with care. Mr. Lai, who rose as a more plain-spoken politician, sees a need to more sharply lay out Taiwan’s separate status.
“In his judgment, there’s nothing to be gained from being ambiguous — the conclusion is that Beijing is going to press them, no matter what,” said David Sacks, a fellow for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations who analyzes relations between Taiwan and China.
“For decades, cross-strait relations really lay on ambiguities and not saying what you really think, but I think that a lot of that is being eliminated,” Mr. Sacks said. “There’s less room for maneuverability.”
This shift does not mean that war or regional crisis looms. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, is focused on fixing its economy and has indicated that he wants to keep tensions with the United States, Taiwan’s security partner, in check. Chinese leaders also still hope to absorb Taiwan peacefully, and they have maintained contacts with the island’s opposition Nationalist Party, which favors closer ties with Beijing.
But China’s pressure tactics are likely to present Mr. Lai with hard choices about how and when to push back or exercise restraint.
A ship from Taiwan’s coast guard, left, pursuing one from China’s near Kinmen island last week, in an image from a video released by the Taiwan Coast Guard Administration.Credit…Taiwan Coast Guard Administration, via Associated Press
“In this new chapter, it’s like the tensions become the norm,” Chen Kuan-ting, a lawmaker from Mr. Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party, said in an interview.
“Trying to contain us and squeeze us tighter, trying to get us like this,” Mr. Chen said, bracing his arms into a tightening hold. “It’s not a hug.”
Taiwan’s leader speaks his mind. Mr. Lai is the second president in a row from the Democratic Progressive Party, which has turned to Western partners to hold China at bay.
A former mayor and lawmaker, Mr. Lai rose in the defiant traditions of his party. Even before Mr. Lai’s election, Beijing reviled him for describing himself in 2017 as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan’s independence,” words meant to signal that he would defend Taiwan’s autonomy without pursuing formal independence.
Still, officials in Beijing seemed taken aback by how starkly he drew a line between Taiwan and China in his high-profile May inauguration speech, several analysts said.
In the speech, Mr. Lai asserted that dialogue with Beijing is only possible if the two sides negotiate as separate equals, not — as Beijing wants — based on the idea that each side accepts that it is part of one Chinese nation.
Past Taiwanese presidents have also said that China and Taiwan should treat each other as distinct equals. But Beijing took more umbrage this time, partly because he said so in his inauguration speech, a manifesto for his four-year term, said Bonnie S. Glaser, an analyst of Taiwan and China at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
“He just wanted to convey clearly that the two sides of the strait — they’re two separate states,” Ms. Glaser said. “He wants to, basically, begin his four years setting that as the base line, and telling the Chinese that they have to accept it.”
In an interview with Time magazine, Mr. Lai set out his position: “According to international law, we are already a sovereign and independent country.”
He wants Taiwan’s military to be better prepared.
Mr. Lai’s supporters say his clearer position is part of an effort to bring more urgency to building up Taiwan’s resilience against threats from China.
His new defense minister, Wellington Koo, has signaled that he wants to shake up the armed forces. He started by putting an end to ceremonial formalities like goose-step marching in parades.
Mr. Lai has vowed to continue Taiwan’s military buildup, and some experts argue that the island should lengthen conscription — already extended recently to 12 months — to amass enough well-trained troops to deter Beijing.
