The shrinking of Taiwan’s active-duty troop numbers is “worrisome”, observers have said, highlighting the impact on war preparedness as cross-strait threats intensify.
According to Taiwanese media reports citing a defence ministry submission to the legislature, the number of active volunteer soldiers in Taiwan is expected to drop to about 160,800 next year, sustaining a 3 per cent decrease from 2023.
Analysts blamed the projected decline on the waning pull of military jobs amid Beijing’s growing grey zone tactics.
Taiwan, whose armed forces are made up of voluntary troops and all-male reservists, had once sought to transition to an all-volunteer military system. It gradually reduced the compulsory service period in the 2000s, from two years to one, and then to four months in 2013.
However, that transition has been reversed amid growing military pressure from mainland China and a shrinking armed force, with the one-year conscription period reinstated in January.
Announcing the plan in December 2022, the island’s then leader Tsai Ing-wen said war preparedness had to be stepped up as mainland China’s “attempts to coerce Taiwan have become clearer”.
But voluntary troops, with their longer and more sophisticated training, are still considered central to Taiwan’s combat readiness.
And their numbers have steadily declined since 2022. The volunteer force size shrank by about 2.6 per cent to 155,218 in 2023, according to the Taipei Times, compared to a budgeted size of 171,422.
The confirmed total for 2024 has yet to be made public.
Analysts said the scope of the projected 2024-2025 decline was equivalent to 11 Taiwanese combined arms battalions, or about 90 per cent of its major naval warship crews.
The island’s defence ministry clarified on Tuesday that the reduction would be spread out across different forces and units, while citing a shrinking workforce and competition from the private sector as factors, according to the island’s Central News Agency.
The staffing level of the Taiwanese military was at 78.6 per cent, the report said, citing the defence ministry.
Staffing had fallen to 80 per cent last year, from 89 per cent in 2020, according to ministry figures.
The worry was that, in addition to a stark disparity in military capabilities across the Taiwan Strait, the island now lacked the manpower to operate and train with new weapons, said Lu Li-shih, a former instructor at the Taiwanese naval academy in Kaohsiung.
“With [a trend] of forces quitting their jobs, the new personnel have not been able to live up to standards with their operational skills and tactical knowledge,” he said.
Taiwan’s low birth rate means the number of new reservists will continue to decline.
Lu said university admissions were expected to hit bottom only about four years later, meaning fewer men meeting the mandated age of 19 for conscription for years.
Extended conscription could hardly compensate for experienced soldiers who quit the force early in their careers, Lu warned. “As there is a minimum [commitment] of four years in voluntary service … [those who quit] are at least at the rank of private first class to corporal, who are rather mature soldiers.”
According to Denny Roy, a senior fellow on Asia-Pacific security issues with East-West Centre: “The reduction in the number of active-duty troops is especially worrisome because so much of the loss is among the volunteer soldiers, whom Taiwan would depend on to help mentor the less experienced conscripts during wartime.”
John Dotson, deputy director of the Global Taiwan Institute, a Washington-based research institute, said that the conscripted “garrison troops” could still have “some positive effect in relieving the ‘main battle troops’ … of [guard duty type] responsibilities, thereby allowing them to focus on more meaningful training”.
“But, [extended compulsory service] will be of limited use in preparing the one-year conscripts for modern warfare.”
Chang Yan-ting, a former deputy commander of the Taiwanese air force and a chair professor at the National Tsing Hua University, said unattractive compensation and mounting workloads were among the main reasons causing volunteer soldiers to quit their jobs, even though some had to pay early termination fees.
Taiwan made a controversial decision to cut pensions for retired forces in 2018, prompting an outcry in the military as senior veterans will see their monthly stipend cut by more than 20 per cent over a decade.
A “wave of resignations” began three years ago, Chang said.
The trend showed “an indirect success” for Beijing’s grey-zone tactic of maintaining pressure on Taiwan through continuous military harassment, Roy said.
“Constant [mainland] Chinese military exercises and drills put the Taiwan armed forces under stress, making the work life of the soldiers harder and the job less attractive,” he said.
“The defence of Taiwan will always require a large number of personnel … It’s hard to say what number is ‘sufficient’ [but] larger numbers give you more confidence.”Beijing, which sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary, stepped up military pressure on the island after Tsai – of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) – started her first term in 2016.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has also stepped up patrols in the Taiwan Strait since 2022, as Tsai deepened exchanges with the United States, and has been sending more aircraft across the median line of the strait.
The US, like most countries, does not recognise Taiwan as independent but is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to arming it for defence.
To counterbalance the dwindling force size, defence planners in Taiwan had stepped up the use of aerial and seagoing drones, according to Roy.
Observers are also looking out for reforms that streamline decision making.
Dotson hoped the fall in numbers would “prompt the [Taiwanese] military to undertake further reforms, which might push tactical decision-making down to smaller units, and … take into account lessons learned from the war in Ukraine, including the value of drones for strike and reconnaissance, and the value of mobility”.
Taiwan has been looking to boost its asymmetric capabilities and plans to spend over NT$10 billion (US$312.73 million) to procure military drones next year, the Taipei Times reported.
But Lu, who used to be at the frontline of the Taiwanese navy, does not expect structural reform in the military given the mounting pressure posed by the PLA.
“It would be quite difficult if they have to get used to a new troop and command structure now … as that would also impact teaching manuals and standards,” he said.
Incoming weapons like the Taiwan-developed Sky Bow III surface-to-air missile system were also likely to add further pressure on existing troops, with some already asked to take up double duty, Lu added.
Military-specific improvements in pay scale were also unlikely, he said, as this was connected to the civil servant pay structure. But raising allowances, as the military had done recently for combat troops and forces stationed on smaller frontline islands, would be an option.
Even as military pay stagnates, Taiwan has boosted its defence budget since 2017, mainly for arms procurement.
PLA pressure on Taiwan has deepened under Tsai’s successor William Lai Ching-te, also of the DPP and labelled by Beijing as a cross-strait “troublemaker”.
Earlier this month, Lai proposed a record defence budget of NT$647 billion for next year, an increase of about 6 per cent.
The move sparked strong protest from Beijing. “As a province of China, Taiwan is not entitled to have a defence budget”, Beijing’s defence ministry spokesman Wu Qian said last Thursday.
