As was to be expected, the U.S. presidential election cast a large shadow over Taiwan.
Polling two days ahead of the election conducted by political scientists Lev Nachman, Yen Weiting, and Hannah Kim showed that Taiwanese seemed to prefer Vice President Kamala Harris, with 56 percent of respondents showing a preference for her over former President Donald Trump. Although some deep Greens remain convinced that Trump would act to benefit Taiwan by taking a strong stance against China, the result seems to indicate that Taiwanese may have come to view him as a potentially destabilizing force.
In 2016, before the start of Trump’s first term, the U.S. president-elect took an unprecedented phone call from Taiwan’s then-President Tsai Ing-wen, raising hopes for stronger Taiwan-U.S. ties. The start of the China-U.S. trade war also buoyed expectations that a tougher U.S. stance on China would entail stronger support for Taiwan. Though Taiwan-U.S. bilateral ties did strengthen during the first Trump term, Trump also came to be viewed as potentially dangerous, as his comments have repeatedly suggested a transactional view of global politics.
In particular, during the 2024 campaign, Trump lashed out at Taiwan with the accusation that it had “stolen” the United States’ semiconductor industry, as well as suggesting that Taiwan should pay the U.S. for defense. The apparent preference among Taiwanese for Harris, as indicated by polling, seems to confirm that the Biden administration came to be seen as taking the increased pressure on China that began under the Trump administration to more stable ground.
Consequently, in the wake of the U.S. elections, the administration of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te has largely sought to reassure that it expects Taiwan-U.S. ties to be stable. In a post congratulating Trump on X (formerly Twitter), Lai said, “ I’m confident that the longstanding #Taiwan-#US partnership, built on shared values & interests, will continue to serve as a cornerstone for regional stability & lead to greater prosperity for us all.”
Though Premier Cho Jung-tai stated ahead of the U.S. election that he disagreed with Trump’s view of Taiwan stealing the U.S. semiconductor industry, Cho has said that Taiwan would seek new means of cooperation with the United States under Trump. There have been some warnings from Taiwan’s central bank as to the potential impact on exports from proposed tariffs by Trump.
Reports by the Financial Times indicate that Taiwan has approached the incoming Trump administration about purchasing $15 billion worth of arms, including an Aegis destroyer. Su Tzu-yun, a fellow at Taiwan’s top military think tank, the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, suggested that Taiwan may also aim to purchase F-35 aircraft.
This has occurred even as Taiwan has denied having a shopping list for the United States, per se.
The first Trump administration sold Taiwan $21 billion of arms in the form of 11 packages, while $7 billion was sold under the Biden administration. As such, the Lai administration may be hoping to set the tone for its relationship with the Trump administration through a large weapons purchase. Taiwan may also hope that there are opportunities to purchase weapons systems it previously did not have access to under the Biden administration from the new Trump administration.
