The US faces critical “sustainment risks” that might lead to rapid defeat in a conflict with China, according to a Heritage Foundation report, which also found that while such a scenario could start in the Taiwan Strait, it would not be contained there.
Based on the findings of an AI-based study called Tidalwave – after a 1943 operation of the same name – the right-wing think tank urged Washington to immediately strengthen American fuel and munitions reserves and logistical networks.
At the same time, China’s fuel and ammunition systems were “vulnerable to a range of US tools before and during conflict and more visible or exposed than the forces they support”, the study said.
“Allowing the systems that support the PLA to operate with impunity before and during conflict would carry grave strategic consequences,” the report added, referring to the People’s Liberation Army.
AI-assisted simulations based on more than 7,000 data sources focused on fuel and ammunition vulnerabilities for both sides in scenarios based on a 365-day US-China conflict in the western Pacific Ocean.
The study found that both the Americans and Chinese faced critical risks in sustaining supplies of fuel and munitions, making the first 30-60 days crucial in determining the long-term shape of the war by quickly reducing numbers of aircraft and ships.
About the Author
