Xi Jinping’s latest purge of top military officers probably reduces the chance of China taking imminent, deliberate military action to seize Taiwan. But many interpretations of the event are possible, and some imply an increased risk of war, perhaps accidental.
The Ministry of National Defence on 24 January announced investigations into Central Military Commission (CMC) vice-chair Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli for ‘vile influence on the Party, the state and the military’. The move follows earlier removals and investigations that have steadily hollowed out senior military ranks, leaving the CMC so depleted it is now too small to justify a WeChat group chat.
Whether this makes a high-risk invasion attempt or blockade against Taiwan more or less likely depends mainly on whether Xi is correcting capability deficits or clearing political obstacles to force.
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